البيتكوين في صعود لكن الطلب في تراجع

Hello everybody. Sorry about no live stream yesterday, Memorial Day. We usually skip that, but today there's so much news going on, we need to get into it. Let's just jump right in. So, first of all, this is from First Squawk. And First Squawk is global financial specializing in markets, backward geopolitics, and such. And they stated that Americans are falling behind on loan and credit card payments at the fastest pace since 2008. And as we're going to see moving through today's show, we're going to take look at what is going on with just the demand for Bitcoin and the nervousness that is the actual markets and some of that is be is pretty much reasonably based especially if we are talking about the the macro environment. So what first says can be confirmed by taking look at the New York Fed and their data. This is the total debt balance. This is non-housing debt verse housing debt. Now, housing is the amount of funds that you have to do that would relate to the housing that you're actually living in. That would be rent, that could be mortgage, that could be taxes, it could be anything. That is the housing debt. Non-housing debt will be things like, you know, credit cards and different debts that you have across the board. That could also be student loans. But we can just see as we're taking look here that over time we tend to, this is of course in America, we tend to like debt. Debt's not big thing over here. We we thrive on it just about. We can see that in the in the great recession 2007 8 and then nine. You can see how much debt was actually here. Then of course it just kind of exposed us and we went down. We're doing pretty good until 2013 and then we just started to rip with the debt. And you can see here that the non-housing was 2.7 trillion. Housing was 8.3. and we just pretty much went up and to the right to the now mass amount of debt of five trillion and 13 trillion for housing. So where does this all come from? Well, mean debt's going to be debt. We're going to keep having it. It's going to keep going through. And of course, the American government and all governments are going to continue to debase the currency. All we have to do is take look at the M2 money supply. And so if you take look at what we just just saw in 20078, what do you see here? Well, this is the money supply and of course the treasury likes to just print like crazy and that of course is why debt goes up. So if we take look and say it's it's the debt. It's not the debt so much as we keep printing money and we start to debase the actual currency and also coincidentally if we take look here at the S&P 500 going back to 2000 which was of course everybody's talking about an AI bubble. Now before that of course there was the great recession and mortgage back securities in you know 2007 89. And before that, in the year 2000, 2001 or so, we had this thing called the dotcom crash. And we see the S&P 500, it actually did go down quite bit, but we did go back to its all-time high in 2007 when we had another recession. It just kind of flows like this. But then after that, as we started to really print and we printed, we got all the way up to here. So, as people are saying like, we have so much debt." not so much the debt, it's the amount of money that is slloshing around. And then of course to take look at credit card debt, that post is actually correct because it seems like nobody wants to pay off their credit cards. Percentage of balance 90 plus days delinquent by loan type. And you got student loan, credit cards, mortgage, auto loans. And we can see that there's two here. Student loans up and to the right, massive amount of debt. and another one called credit cards. And we can just see that it is pretty much overlaid with the last time we had recession 78 and nine. So are we headed for recession? It's anybody's guess but it makes people nervous and that is why we've got some of the things that are happening in the crypto market as people are pretty much risk off. So let me know what you think about that in the comments section. And then also there's big debate about inflation and this is Kevin He's the new Federal Reserve chair. just found it fascinating what he talks about here as he's saying like look we think that or he believes the people around him think that we're actually in deflationary take listen to this and maybe you think to yourself man is are they going to raise rates? don't think so. Take listen. what we call AI in couple years we'll just call business and AI is going to make almost everything cost less and the US can be big winner and and it's hugely exciting moment if were to step back for minute were the president what I'd be worried about is central bank that doesn't see any of that central bank that is stuck with models from 1978 governance from prior period and don't recognize we could be at the front end of productivity boom and if were the president. I'd be worried that they might not see it and they might think economic growth is somehow going to be inflationary. think we probably in the early innings of structural decline in prices. Kansas sees it on the front lines of real businesses. And think if you look over the period of the next year or two, it's pretty special moment. don't know if this is true, but it does bring to the forefront of what we're talking about as far as inflation and the amount of data that gets flowed through. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell beforehand use lot of old style data, but maybe with War in we might actually see data that is up to date and to the time frame. And it was always different to me to take look at like something like true inflation which had 10 million different data points coming in on continuous basis and you can see that the US CPI inflation index is 2.17 right now. What the Fed is saying and what the data is saying that is maybe potentially outdated is 3.2 3.5 correct me in the comment section and we're seeing rapid supply or in increase in inflation. Now of course people say well Rob of course it's three three and half%. Do you see how much it is for the gas? you see how much is for food and everything else. First of all, inflation never stops. We just took look at the M2 money supply. So, it's not like we're going to go down. That's not how it works. We're going to keep going up. The question is how much is it going up? Is it 2.17? Is it 3.5? Is it 4.2? That's the big thing. They want it around 2%. But maybe, just maybe, with the data that's coming in with true inflation, whatever Kevin Walsh is deciding to do, maybe it won't be so bad. So we have that and then also as far as uncertainty we have things that are going on in the geopolitical section. This just happened guess is the 26th today. Yes it is. Fresh Iran strikes failed to spark panic. Just so everybody knows the US military said Monday guess this was yesterday that it carried out self-defense strikes in southern Iran. There was lot of different things going on yesterday. couldn't get the right information. Memorial Day things were shut down here in the states. But it looks like this is actually happened. Carried out self-defense strikes in southern Iran including on missile launch sites and boats placing mines while saying it was using restraint during the ceasefire. This comes on the back as Donald Trump had come out and said that there was peace deal and we were just working through the motions and it sounded like it was actually going to happen but not when you are striking things in the straight of vermouth. So is that going to happen? don't think so. And when it says here, fresh Iran strikes failed to spark panic. Well, mean, in all honesty, it's not like Bitcoin really held up fantastically. We can see here that excuse me. That's in one year 24 hours. There you go. And you got it at 77. Wow, it was almost 78,000. And now we're taking quite bit of drop. So, of course people say that's healthy pullback, Rob. Sure. So that's what we have for Bitcoin and the price action. And then also as it the title and thumbnail suggest, this is where we get to it. The Bitcoin demand and it's going down. Bitcoin demand gauge sinks to worst levels since December as spot buying weakens. And it states the rally has been driven more by futures than by spot buying. That would be the stuff that we and you do. Usually the retail and even places like strategy, the same thing. Spot buying as evidenced by persistently negative Coinbase premiums leaving prices vulnerable because leveraged positions can unwind quickly. How quickly? This quickly. Bitcoin pumped 1,400 bucks as we and liquidated 25 million worth of shorts in 60 minutes. But then it dumped $1,400 and liquidated 15 million worth of longs in the next 15 minutes. And if you don't think that's manipulation, I've got bridge to sell you. So why not why not take look at this and see this and go this is what it is as there is looks like lagging amount of demand. And this metric compares new minor supply and older coins returning to circulation with the amount of Bitcoin that the market is absorbing. So when people say, well, this doesn't make sense because there's only so much that hundreds of Bitcoin that is produced every day. And this is Bitcoin that's being produced by the miners, which Michael Sailor and Strategy have said they're going to keep buying up and just keep buying, keep buying, which is fine. But this is also new Bitcoin returning to circulation, people selling. So by April 2026, it was usually like to see this positive, but it's negative 91,000 Bitcoin just sitting there. Early May, negative1,000 and today as far as May 26, negative 147,000 Bitcoin just sitting there waiting waiting to be picked up. So this of course does not look good for the short term. long term. Of course, buy Bitcoin every single Monday because of the debasement, but as far as moving forward, this is one of those issues where on the short term, not looking too bullish as the demand goes down. However, there is some good news. Morgan Stanley, this is Amy Oldenberg, head of digital asset strategy at Morgan Stanley. And this is from the Bitcoin conference while back couple don't know this three weeks or so but it's good reminder about what's happening with institutions as they're pushing the narrative forward. Take listen to what she says here. Even though the one thing to mention is we have made recommendations on allocation too. know we were talking about allocation to Bitcoin. We've announced allocations allocation recommendations to Bitcoin of 2 to 4%. And it's still been slow. So think that still points to significant education that needs to be done really understanding the fundamentals kind of going back to my earlier point on on why you want to take exposure to this asset. Yeah. And remember this is again Morgan Stanley two trillion assets under management and they're saying like look 2 to 4% seems reasonable but she's saying like there is lag in demand and can understand why. There's lot of things that are going on that make people bit apprehensive about Bitcoin, but there are things that are being built and it's this isn't the only one. Of course, you know, many institutions that are doing the same thing and recommendation to clients, but also this is new one. This is Adam Baxcoin treasury company. And right here, this is Sean Bill. He's the chief investment officer. And they went public via spa merger holding over 30,000 Bitcoin. But just wanted you to take listen to what Bill here talks about as far as moving into and getting people to invest into these types of treasury companies. Pretty interesting. And of course, his background is pretty stellar. think you're always going to be better off if you can invest in company like BSGR. you if you look at like it's like looking at Bergkshire Hathaway versus the S&P 500. You get the S&P 500 return plus, right? And that's what we're really trying to do. We want to try to create return Bitcoin plus and so think you know think having professional management we have kind of unparalleled domain expertise within the tech side with Adam back we have unparalleled domain expertise on the institutional investment side with my background as former chief investment officer of multi-billion dollar public pension plan ran you know hedge funds won CIO magazines you know CIO of the year won Bloomberg Hedgewing you know multistract started hedge fun year two years in row. so think we bring very different skill set than our peers. Well, great nice pedigree. So it sounds fantastic and hopefully they can convince the people to say hey maybe I'll invest into these treasury companies and move forward with the Adam Bax company and as they bring in more investors which would be fantastic and have to tell you don't agree fully with what he says here. don't think everybody should buy into companies that are Bitcoin treasury companies. know people will say, "Well, own strategy." That's great. On some situations, it is actually pretty good just to invest into the companies. My personal belief is just invest into Bitcoin. But there is caveat to that, and that is that people that are not very tech-savvy or are susceptible to being scammed should really just buy ETFs and just let it ride. Because people that hold if if you're like saying, "Grandma, you got to buy this Bitcoin. here's cold storage device of ice and it's going to be fantastic. don't think it's going to work for everybody. Different strokes for different folks. And this is again another thing that I'm keep worry about because every single day see more hacks and scams being done and this is no different. Stacy Mr posted that two scammers have already stolen $400,000 from users through fishing unis swap ad on Google. And I'm old enough to remember when the AI generated Michael Sailor strategy videos were coming on on YouTube. So here's the problem. You got these dependable corporations and companies say like Google and YouTube and they're allowing this trash to come through. People are and look at this. Look at this. You can click on this. It's and the the website is business.google.com unis swap. And of course it it takes you to some scam website which they took the money from these people to put this advertisement on so people could go there and then connect their wallets and then get scammed out. And that's just one that I'm talking about. So for me again if for us if you've been in the game for quite long time it's okay for cold storage device not your cues not your crypto all that great stuff. However, for the other people and even if it like even me, I'm tired of doing this and I've talked about this to death. trust have Roth IRA with them. There's no capital gains because it's retirement account, but also they have premium custody account, the same one that's Michael Sailor and Larry Frink from Black Rockck use. And I've got lion share of my crypto over there because I've got some in tandem and some in ledger and you can do that but it's very easy to get scammed out or leave your pneummonic phrases somewhere or you happen to put that in an email or some kind of like digital storage device or some kind of note or you did photocopy and the photocopy information has all your pneummonic phrases. It can happen. It's happened before. So I'm just saying everybody if you could do me favor look towards better security again black rock sailor and zero capital gains for Roth IRA call these guys links in the description that way you don't get scammed out and then we don't get seen as the industry which loses everybody all their money. Anyhow, speaking of treasuries, Tom, they just made their largest ETH purchase of 237 million, and it's smart play if ETH does its job, but I'm concerned for Tom. Anyhow, this is what you want to do if you believe in in product and you've got lot of great data and you're really great at investing and you've got company like Tom Lee and Bitmain and as the price moves down, you pick up more and more. Now, it works out great as long as number go up at some point. But this is what Bitine is doing. Tom Lee said the firm is accelerating purchases to take advantage of Ether's pullback below 2200 and expects to reach its glo its goal of controlling 5% of the supply in 2026. Bitmine now holds 12 billion in crypto and cash and they've staked more than 4.7 million ETH and is generating roughly 276 million in annualized staking revenue. Wow, that is lot. So everybody, there's some unknowns going on. There are some macro issues. There are some geopolitical issues. But you can see that in the background there's lot of things that are being pushed out. So maybe as time goes on things will work out for everybody. But that's it for today. Like today's video, give it thumbs up, consider subscribing. We talk about is relatively timesensitive. Now let's get into little Q&A. Answer all your questions and we'll go from there. And think there's not many questions today. think we're going to do pretty good. Smoking delight says, "Demand always falls until price starts going up, then suddenly everyone wants it again." That's usually what what it happens. But of course, as the price goes down, everybody looks at you like you're So, how could you buy that worthless stuff? Of course, as the price goes up, they're like, "You know what? should have listened." I've been, this is my going on fourth cycle, and remember in remember hearing about this in, like said, 2013. Didn't get into it. And then, you know, 2017 went in pretty heavy. And then was amazing to me just how far it fell. Went from almost 20,000 down to roughly 3,000. was like, "Wow, that's maybe the stuff doesn't actually work. Maybe the number go up. Technology isn't what thought it was." did some investigation, figured out that, there's this thing called money supply. This thing called the basement of the currency, and there's an issue with finite and and the amount of money that's being printed. Maybe this I'll go for something that is little bit more of store of value. Now, here we are. But, yeah, saw us go from 2017, 2018 to the heights of 2021, then back down again into nice little runup in 2025 when everybody thought, just missed it." And now here we are in 2026 yet again. That's pretty much how it goes. We will see. Let's see. OM was real. Yeah, Miller says, "My work truck broke down sitting on the side of the highway. At least can watch the show live for once." Sorry, man. I've been there. Let's see. Daniel asked question. Rob, being that ITR and Coinbase work together, well, that's just for their custody part. for because there's custodial services and there's retirement which is like Roth IRA, traditional IRA. Is there to way to move what have on Coinbase over to trust without causing transaction? No, don't think that's how it how it would work because in this situation, guess it'd be direct rollover, but then there's going to have to be some documentation and the way that they store it. And the reason why like it so much is because it is such pain to get out. and you'll figure that, which is like you say, well, that doesn't sound like really good thing, Rob. Well, it is if you know you're getting wrench attacked or you know you're you just got call from Google. They're like, "Hey, guess what? You got to send us you got to send us 02 Bitcoin to turn your and that sounds ridiculous, but people do fall for it." what would do is there's link in the description to it and there's real number where you can call them and just ask them that question. And think that's the best thing to do. And right now they're in they're in LA, California. So, it's like what? It's 11:30 p.m. there. Or 11:30 a.m., should say. Sorry. 11:30 a.m. So, you can talk to somebody real. know they're real because went to the actual location and met all the employees. There's lot. So, yeah, just do that. Rusty Bots's got great question and it doesn't make lot of sense. Rod, do you think the super El Nino talking about hurricanes will increase the fertilizer production problems? Will be bullish for my altcoins? All hurricanes are great for altcoins. maybe even like El Ninocoin, which is probably memecoin coming to scam near you. So Rusty, probably so probably going to be just great stuff. Vlad says, "Do you think money will leave crypto to get in on the SpaceX IPO?" Vlad, money's already leaving crypto in mass to get into AI. don't fault people because let's be honest, did you use AI today? Any of you, did you do Google search and have the AI thing come up? Did you generate image? Did you use Grock to verify if something was real or not real on Okay, probably some of you did something like that. Now, let me ask you this. How many of you use Cardano to buy anything or to transfer things out? How many of you used Bitcoin to and the lightning network which you can do right now to buy something? How many of you you get where I'm going with this, right? AI has massive amount of utility and to invest into that. I'm not so sure about and Vlad's got point about this the SpaceX IPO. It's probably be massively overvalued, but know one thing is for sure. All of those companies, whether they collapse or go to the moon, whether that be SpaceX, XAI, whether that be Claude, whether that be Chad GPT, whether that be Gemini from Google, all of them need one thing. Massive, massive amounts of electricity and massive, massive amounts of new storage to have all their Nvidia chips. So you can invest into those companies like Enthropic and Claude as it comes out or SpaceX IPO which might do probably do pretty good but or you can get into like the picks and shovels of the underlying things that are actually needed to make all these companies run either they do or do not. So, to answer your question, Vlad, money's already flowing out into different AIs. The diff the question is is are they getting into SpaceX IPOs? Are they getting into things like Bloom Energy or are they getting into different even like Bitcoin miners right now, which are pretty good for the AI pivot. used Cardono to lose money. That's everybody who's invested in Cardano. He didn't get hacked. He gave it away. Yeah, it's social social engineering scam, we would say. Hey Brad, what are the ETH risk levels? Let's see. don't think Ben would fault us. We're just taking look at just something as simple as risk levels. And you know, lot of the things that on Ben's website in the Cryptoverse, there's lot of free stuff. So, if you want to sign up for the freebie, just check it out. There's link in the description. Now, if you want to pay for month month, give you 10% off the first month. But, yeah. So, let's see. Go here. Click on ETH. Wow, it's relatively high as far as the would not have thought this, but the risk level is like right in the middle almost 0.44. So the risk levels, if you're not familiar with them, there's link in the description where talk about dynamic DC. As the risk levels start to go down, mean the price is going down, it doesn't become as risky. Now, I'm talking about Ethereum. I'm not talking about Fartcoin or whatever crazy memecoin that's out there or whatever whatever NFT that you may have. Those are going to zero. But anyhow, so as the risk levels go down, what do is do what's called dynamic DCA. So, buy little bit more. So, so like if I'm buying 100 bucks per week of Ethereum at 0.5 around 0 at the price of guess it's 1,790 bucks. Instead of buying 100 bucks every week, now might buy $150 per week. And what it shows is that it gives you map, direction, something to follow. As your risk levels go down, you start to buy more and more and more. Like, wow, what's this? So, like, this wouldn't be bad time. The risk levels, see this is at 0.5. So maybe you start buying around around here when bit when Ethereum was 2,000 but you're like but Rob it's 2000 now know this is 2022 and you keep buying and you buy when no one else wants to when Ethereum is like $1,000 and you keep buying historical levels go up you're like maybe just keep buying and then as this happens now you see the price as the price goes from 1600 1800 in October then 3,000 4,000 where we at here maybe start to take profits around here 3700 3600 3500 and so on and so forth. This isn't great example but you're still making little bit of profits and it is Ethereum which I'm starting to wonder about it. don't know if you guys have seen that show Bankless but one of the guys on there and they're both big huge Ethereum bulls. They sold all their Ethereum. They're like, "Yeah, the foundation sucks. They're just not doing what they're supposed to be doing." And it made sense on some of the things they were talking about. So, I'm like, "No, maybe not." But that's the Ethereum risk levels. Now, want to take look at the Bitcoin risk levels. Wow, it's low. 0.36. It's been that far for bit though. It's below 0.4. 0.36. Now this let's see the risk levels. Let's zoom in. So here as the risk levels go down because the price is going down. Wouldn't it be great to buy Bitcoin at 20,000? That'd be cool. Well, we did it. We all did it. If you were around back that time, we're talking about DCAing and so on and so forth. So you had 21,000 and you're buying here. You're like, "Damn it, this sucks because it's never going to go up. It's at 16,000. had no idea what that meant." And the risk level is 0.25. And then as it goes up, you're like, "Yeah, okay. can get to it." Then around March 7,000, like, "Hey, did 3x. Pretty nice." and it goes flat for about six months and it blows up again like have at 100,000 this isn't too bad and then you're over here wow 110,000 and so on and so forth. So to answer your question that's the risk levels. Now, these indicators don't work perfectly because look at this risk levels here. What was the top of Bitcoin 2025, right? October around here. And what was the Bitcoin risk level? 0.53. That didn't really help us because guess what happened after that? All the way down. So, I'll tell you like we're great at buying dips and dollar cost averaging. You know what we're not great at? don't think anybody's great at this taking profits. And it's the reason why you're walk. It's the reason why have these rules underneath me. It's all gone. Don't invest more than you can afford to lose. Everything's scam until pro otherwise. Don't use leverage. Hey, you could do it little bit. Don't leave things on exchanges. and take profits along the way. need to be better at taking profits. did okay. didn't do as good as should have. And that's it. All right, everybody. All right. Bye-bye. That's it for today. Like today's video, thumbs up, subscribe, all that great stuff. And we'll see you guys tomorrow. Adios.