Countdown 3 April 2020

good afternoon welcome to countdown right here on Bloomberg Queen we're starting five minutes only lots of data points on the show lots of conversations as well I'm here to share with me Davina love neat and let's kick start with quick snapshot of what the markets are doing in the session today well the bank nifty certainly leading the charge lower but must admit that today is move on the bank it is slightly different I'm starting with the bank nifty first race instead of the nifty because the movers that want to talk about largely in the banking space the back nifty is down about 5% and look at the cracks it's not HDFC HDFC Bank and Bajaj finance not technically part of the back nifty put the financial space which are leading the charge downwards in fact yes they are lower but not dramatic in fact Bajaj finance is in the green but look at the losers and they have the top losses on the nifty as well ICICI Bank access bank in the same Bank and State Bank of India now in it up year and half two years ago you used to make this distinction between fatir focus banks and corporate focus banks all of these have started making the retail focus as well but they are the ones which are correcting it's not the bluest of blue chips names save for poor tech which is down 5% but it's got technical factors of its own because of the MSC bit Titan is that the pressure as well amongst the top losses on the index today down about 7% there is weakness in jsw steel there is weakness in mark in your ears of management in just moments from now and just very quickly amongst akina's it seems to be bit of Pharma date today because supply as well as some Pharma are in the green on the index and some IT names get CL tech are also not doing all that bad must say there you know ITC is the other one which is also gained quite substantially up about six and half but production Olivia or the broader markets looking we have no needles broader markets are just not into tandem with what the rest of the market is looking like but must say that the advanced decline ratio is not pointing towards any you know bigger direction this obstacle so you have six seven or six you know stocks advancing 757 stock ready planning you know just before we go going ahead and taking look at the Mid Cap index just take look at India big city this - falling off sharply it's come now remember eyes were almost eight eople India waste in this you know down to our and now just starting to cooled off and he spoke to bed three super my name in the morning heroes and you also highlight this is the first time you know if you want to start looking and creating base is that you start seeing the wallet will take off coming to the broader markets face then like you said Pharma as profit is doing well and that's not just the factor of the large-cap index it's also something that pissing in the mid committee basket strikes of new pen marks in pharma they're up in double digits 10% apiece aside from that so by developers is up about nine and half percent you've got the likes of gay which is up 7% poor of hospitals again up 7% Sparky's up six and half percent so that's the kind of move that you're seeing within the pharma pocket aside from that dredging co-op is our capacity and half cents ITC that to the logical names which you already highlights that Laura's lab not perform our national fertilizers was fun for Delta for pleasure copies been doing well because cooling out and bio calm to within the farmer pack is week well Edelweiss today you know the last few days has been managing to hold off what's not doing well is our be banner despite the management coming out in the conference call and saying that they've seen record high names they've also highlighted the deposits of suffered by by 8% important that's something that's function of the other private sector banks post the collapse with yes Bank ashion transport finance equity oz true love in the now the Financial Group but post important to see what's happening in the futures and option if no need grata good afternoon Divina well think the only solace today will be once again think secondly under Todd broader markets are relatively outperforming the front line which is giving you sense that there is selling which is coming into these large cap stocks and primarily the banking stocks so nifty future should come up on your screen the open interest there has risen giving you sense that there are some fresh short positions being taken even at current levels I'll come to the levels that can be monitored for the day at leas in the last an hour of trading but nifty Bank is the one where majority of the short positions right now are being taken open interest has surged over twenty percent if Bank remember on Wednesday we were talking eighteen thousand will be good support but we've already preached that mark we're way way below five percent card coming in there you also highlighted India weeks now surprisingly of course market senses when markets moves higher or lower India wicks moves in the opposite direction but remember in the last three days so it's the third day on the truck when India wakes is corrected when state was correction of about 10 percent in today once again we've corrected six percent so as of now from those highs of 86 it's correct in nearly 35 to 36 percent it's good sign reason me because the fear which the street was expecting you to Karuna virus has already been factored in and that's the reason why option prices and remember wicks as function of option prices IVs were really high that started to cool off now in terms of levels then you've got the 8,000 put across which was sitting with maximum open interest there is addition of nearly six to seven lakh shares which is coming on that strikes that could be key level to be watched to the downside so far we've protected that mark while on the call side 8200 is the mark where majority of the positions have been taken six lakhs is added there so eight thousand 282 at least is the range that you can watch out for today Pharma seems to be big player of the day all the nifty constituent pharma stocks are in green Cerberus it start off with Turin Pharma which has seen significant amount of Edition in today's session in fact last when check open interest was up over 50% in the stock to has given you good returns in today's session long position seen for this one and also for supply which is risen in today's session they are also open interest is up about 15% the other stock which was down 15% huge amount of shorting was seen and Wednesday that was in the steel in power it's down another six percent despite of you know reporting record production and sales number four at 5:20 that stock is still dealing under pressure it's down six percent and traders are still shot in even at these 52 week low level mark clearance well it wouldn't be surprise to know that car sales or vehicle sales across categories have come off this shouldn't surprise anybody everybody anticipated this in some cases the Falls have been more vicious than what was penciled in the question though is is it possible to predict when would normalcy return in scenario like this because this is unprecedented life think of Blackrock sin is something that he's not seen in his 44 years but somebody would set autos very close the end is associated with the largest automobile company in India marque Suzuki mr. Xie Xiao Zhang she passed about Johnson right now with his thoughts one on the March monthly sales numbers about two on the overall picture mr. Shima star thanks so much for joining and you would have assumed that mean you would have guessed that mean wouldn't want to talk only about the March numbers because we knew they were gonna get hit how do you view this current scenario and whether it's possible to make any kind of assessment about how long can this damage last yeah so let me quickly address the first part of the question which is which is the March numbers and year-end numbers so much numbers the industry went down actually by about fifty two point five percent seven percent down you had small game with market share or the industry have gone down about 18 percent the multi market share is just about one percent which is the same as last year as far as the last year is concerned on the other part of your question which is going forward what does it look like well as you mentioned it's an unprecedented situation because you really don't know how the consumer is going to behave subsequent to the mountain critical but we are working on all scenarios and we are looking at our response so that after the lockdown is over hopefully on the 15 then again we get back to normal as far as both sales as production is concerned definitely how much negative we are still assessing and think if you time it would be very clear how much we are talking to prestigious states real estate from little while back and he was mentioning that while this is not an indicator of course but they got some surprising luxury apartment inquiries and Sarah's going I'm guessing dealerships were largely closed mister shabazz knowing this lockdown period as well but any about whether customers would be coming back with bang know you mentioned that it's difficult to predict that but mean when you guys do your boardroom meetings or by teleconference of course what is it that you think about what will happen you are we are still assessing different future scenarios and there are some positives and negatives as far as the demand part and goes the fear information after the lockdown was open in China they surveyed the animal consumers and consumers surprisingly said that they are for their demand for personal God will actually go up because they will sort of move away from public transport so that was very very positive for car sales however as you know cost maybe the view point is that car sales in India is the discretionary budget which means that to get into carbine and that probably will depend on how quickly the same thing let's bounce back after the baby calm down is over we are preparing for all the monkeys of course very clear to me personally see replacement carbine what the high end of the car market should go up as well as the initial carbine so what's the more end of the segment should go up and think combined with the fact that the first time buyers if they prefer personal transport you can have it for the dictionary the positive side of the pin are also so let me add wait for some time all types of combinations think what needs to be done so can understand the lower end of the sake of karak had seen that picked up mister shabazz now just if you can explain why would you expect the replacement car buying at the higher in to go up post lock down getting over exchange because like you were saying from the reality you have probably in my estimate people who are all God yes for vehicles etc they might be actually wanting to change over to mean cause and their ticket the et replacement carbine has been going up during the last year and think that will accelerate further - fair concern my estimate was because people might choose personal car and it's an additional buying from whatever something might not pick the personal transport but going for the vehicle the additional car buying also in or end of the city you reckon mr. Shrivastav that if indeed if indeed demands were to come back post lock down the financing equation will not be an issue will you reckon that we go on at smooth there's no reason to believe otherwise but I'm just checking nevertheless doing and just mentioned the cosmic Christian repurchase it has to be positive of the availability of sector but also sent if it's also positive for car buying to see an uptake that's negative sign because they've all completed the system does get shaken and people take lot of time to get into that the same thing that you can but coming to your point about financing think things will not be an issue when we finding might be different thing so basically we have two financing one is the financing of the retail side which is about 80% of the total retail and then this is finding on the adventure bikes other people about 90 95 percent of the car car working capital so on repair toilet think all over happening and the liquidity introduced in the system think that may not be an issue but only venturi funding side yes we need to have quick churn of being venturi for dealers to be able to take the financing for the future and that think is the big problem with rivers operating today okay mister shabazz Tama one final question really mean know consumer sentiment is almost nearly impossible to predict as to when that would turn so wouldn't ask you to second-guess that but see lot of brokerages kind of penciling in what the demand scenario could be like with the assumption that the law down gets called off on the 15th of April and they predict decline overall of about one or two percent for you and you being the market leader might have the least this decline in sales for 521 over 5 xx would that be fair assessment or do you think even you are not in position to be able to say that right now think the honest answer is I'm not efficient to say it mentioned conversation analysts conclusion then so one final question saying it's mean for no fault of the company but I'm just trying to assess out here that they're opposing forces at play commodity costs would have come lower and that should be much in creative but reckon that the cost of up keeping the staff and giving salaries while sales are not on and then probably renewing or doubling of marketing efforts in order to you know in poor sentiment scenario might all impact margins should we should people anticipate for the first six months of this of this current financial lower margin trajectory from car companies in general is back think if you have the volume of happen because of what are the levels if we need to keep in mind in these current edition let me come to you British first what is it that one needs to do cup for tank nifty the last few days you know has been laid low by the heavyweights but it looks like now it's an old round move on the downside even lights of Acts phase see see this is not likeanything yes agree with that you know baingan ft has been the major accurate of current predicament of the index and think there is more to it you know this is this fall one substrate around current levels now we just going to the charge ratio chart of pang negative and safety and it has broken bit of multiple support zone you know this this ratio line was pretty much chance of holding pretty much strong around around food 14 levels but it's broken below it and think think there could be more downside pressures upon the ratio it means the banknote is likely to underperform going forward as well so don't want to sound overdramatic but you know it is down by five or five percent maybe next few days of the won't be surprised if angrily cools down to fifteen point five levels for sixteen thousand was as well there could be more pain going ahead was just going to the other indices as well and don't see any other signs of strength coming in potential services they are down for 50 banks as mentioned lately and few private banks are down nifty peers depend which were relatively holding ground even they are suffering now the one to the standing or standing strong and showing signs of relative strength body pharma and from from you know when astronomers even they are showing signs of profit booking so am the really struggling to find out where could be the hiding place and think think that could be more pain on down sir both on lefty and bang nifty coming in and the big who know it's possible your index levels overall performance so on 24th of March left email bottom of around 7,500 or 127 high of 9030 and right from there we are seeing decline on all the indices so if did the retracement level of this entire fall so 61 one which is golden ratio on the which is turning up to Sirhan's 8075 and on the bend of teal that 78.6% turns out to be around 17,000 200 to 300 and oxalá so which is fair at the present level itself and on the entire different if try to look at the formations there is falling wedge formation I'm not declaring the fact that markets can fall further but yes this is the zone from where there is potential chance of turning around and supporting to that we have mix which is coming down drastically along with us so fair enough to assume that if market were to make bottom here itself these are the zones so on lefty am looking at for say thousand 100 wait tom 75 fellow zone don't bend of I'm looking out for say around 17,000 who 17300 and also it appeals to levels on wood the advices are taken care of think decent bounce can be expected from this level through selling from this level then yes the previous bottom can definitely be taken around okay let's hope these levels get defend it but for the time being keep an eye on all the banking stocks 50 Bank is by the way down five and half percent ICICI Bank is your top loser losing about nine percent Axis Bank in the seen SPI you name it and all of them have given up you know they're they're down between six to ten percent as of now so very quickly just wanna get sense an individual stock strategies if techies have Ritesh any stocks that you're keeping your radar on any strategy that you wanna share with our viewers yes you know mentioned about the offensive space which which is you know which was showing signs of strength earlier but no profitable is quite visible now the leaders of the previous rally actual Britannia you know there was some sort of you know respite in this space especially at you and if it was outperforming think now we are done with your performance we are likely to see profit booking coming in in FMCG and especially actual if you vote with the important figure chart you know we can see negative column reversal which is followed by double bottom sell it does with that you know won't be surprised of stock goes down by 8 to 10 pressure from Iran I'm expecting move to was 1858 in 20 in next couple of days okay that's very quickly panel your individual stock ideas for this afternoon yes so you know am looking for real because Ning on that counter fell down from God 22 when it were half almost 10 rupees today's in its in of circuit but the stock is trading at fifteen point two so now this can be good fundamental stop normal trading pic right at the current market price we can go think of going along with the target of penny to buy half to 23 that's the first counter in the 2nd is national aluminum again you know that's have been recommending since couple of weeks decent zone of around 27 to 29 per and it's reading 28 point one so we can think of community there so if someone was to play on momentum business before the trigger of 30 to be taken off and you know we can expect faster move on the upside but these are the two counters which I'm looking out from long side any reliance you know due to crude affect your study what we saw in the late evening to reopen and came down substantially so on the lower side below 2050 it may move down to 900 but say about thousand ninety expect the counter to reach 250 to 1,300 mark in the time to come okay technically it's also time to bring in fundamental guest on board we've got Yogesh method of yield maximizes joining us now are you get good afternoon well clearly these are tough times to be in there are days when you're up four percent in the very next day index losses you know of about four or five percent think it's become new normal now for the last one month one stock have been you know looking at among the nifty constituents and for the longest time of you've been saying that valuations are pretty cheap and I'm talking about ITC recent in last seven days it's given you good returns today also when markets are we keep it on Wednesday for that matter it was up in about would you look at this one clearly on valuation basis PC at these levels good afternoon we are talking about ITC yes okay no need then for ITC would say that so far was negative when it was to 50 to 70 because the contribution from the non non tan on up for business was almost 54 55 percent but considering comparison in comparison to the other FM city within the sector institutions very constituents it is available at night now we tend to be the EPS most corporate rate tag our corporate tax rate card it is available at hot be 17 18 times multiple is the current price of 179 even though it has moved up seven and half percent so that way would say that yes it will be good portfolio stock for those who are willing to bet on the defensive name and probably again from here to make 20-25 percent returns over one one and half or maybe two years which is decent-enough in this intersection area of six percent then yes definitely can go for that ITC name and in such scenario where the entire BFS sector is has you know given sweep on all the prices and the index 50 constituents are also going down to your non non BFS would say then we will have to look at some of the names where you know not to hide behind the bush but at least to capital protection and to Parker capital so that we again it will be good up good stock to have that as they put for this job knew we might actually have mean because we have long weekend we have and the rest of the world markets are not looking all that great it won't be difficult to have those long positions currently as well but this is obviously investing from slightly longer term perspective since you're talking about winners Yogesh good afternoon are you tempted to buy any of the PS use because as somebody mentioned day before yesterday when valuations are low stops find reason to move up would Gail or AA or BPCL or ongc be those companies that somebody can take small two three five percent portfolio vintage extra to yeah sure good afternoon and this time if we are talking about PS use then definitely there are certain pockets which which like most where ONGC though it is exhibited now at 70 rupees or maybe near to 70 rupees think it is lot more value in that even if there is replacement of asset or maybe total replacement cost then it is available at almost free to the investors now even if you don't that is 5-piece division every year forget the dividend yield but at least you are getting as shadow true value there is an inherent intrinsic value at this price and if somebody wants to pocket PS use definitely 70 rupees will give 20 30 % vacant in year's time similarly have gone through Gail but didn't like much but that means so far was bearish on the oil marketing company but since crude prices have gone down to substantially at 25 $27 now am looking at IO it is available at 80 rupees and then also offers great value to the investors from the current price marketing March not gonna be gonna be very much limited but the throughput is not that much deteriorated even though he bees are yet to come so think this will have better days again from here in such kind of bleak scenario think if somebody wants to park their money in the safe heaven then this could be the one where we will not see any type of decline further from current levels it is highly unlikely okay the other pocket that's the most active space right now in today's session is few names that have got some fundamental news around it one being orb in the common mean we get you an analyst to dissect what's the way forward for some of these gamma companies but already no farmer won the deal with Santos that column through mutually fallen through on the back of delay of approval coming in from the US FTC and then you have stimuli which is announced successful completion of phase 3 clinical study of deer that's two point nine billion dollar market in the US and that's big opportunity for Yogesh quick world on any of these two stocks good afternoon think supply is there working for this this API is end of the product for long long time this is phase three and this does not mean they will have that US FDA clearance for launch into u.s. so will say that rather than getting into surplus Aurobindo but the sendou still has been called up mutually of course but think then that 900 million dollars is saving for the company and that can be utilized in maybe in terms of buyback or any other special dividend you know in short span by the company so at that level think that reasonable valuation or think fair valuation of almost 10 12 12 times multiple Auroville is available when in supplies at still 1819 multiple so would say though it is political trial and thought face is being cleared with good market size in US but coming the US economy and developments think Euro or OB the farmer will get much better at least and much better peak all right joining us right now is Vishal manchanda he is here to take us through his analysis he tracks bomber really closely and his analysis of all of these individual companies and what place individually hold as well as the prospects for the farm escape so whole wish out thanks very much for taking all the time you know there's split camp between those who think that there's 900 million dollars that would have gone into the Santos deal is big saving for well there's the other camp which believes that this would have been bigger opportunity lost now for orphaned Obama that being one and then the other one being Pasiphae ously they're not gonna start marketing immediately but this is we're getting them one step closer into their entry into with the US markets farad because the jewelry the generic drops along the lines of advert are still selling like hotcakes cleaver right so going to this Aurobindo deal which was called off think did you this olaf's as favorable for Aurobindo Parma largely because the deal was structured such that the cash flows become supposed to come up front so basically the the portfolio that or we know acquired represented represented declining sales portfolio so there was material delay in the execution of the deducted six-month delay has happened and the portfolio was losing value the other thing was had the deal being terminated had that deal been executed it would have added significant financial ingrates to or over no and particularly at this juncture when Aurobindo has got several compliance issues at its plant and and there is global uncertainty around covert 19 it's better to avoid financial leverage at such juncture so basically you view this as more favorable outcome of the current scenario what about Scylla so generic ad we're having completed phase three trial is it just is just the first step the larger hurdle in getting and Google is very large very long review timelines so we have seen competitors taking three to four years post-filing for getting an approval so we have company called vector ax out of UK which has filed for generic copy think more than three years now and they are still struggling with an approval so this obviously is positive development but we will have to be aware of that extended time line that it can take to get an approval for such complicated drug okay the other thing is for the path so Boyle currently you know there are some companies that have received US FDA observations while the others inspections have been closed and therefore the stocks have been reacting accordingly what is best please stop which you would advise to be think among the last names Sun Pharma is the one that would pick up at this point because Sun Pharma is building business that that would be immune from the problems that you have seen in the last few years so price erosion in the US so they are trying to build branded portfolio in the US and they have already reached very significant scale in building this business too so none of the other Indian peers have been able to execute to that that scale so the importance of having branded business is that it is immune from price erosion and it basically you can look forward to secular growth on that business while being being in generic but generic business you will need to keep fighting erosion in your base speed waste portfolio and get so the newer drugs that you get approval for just offset the base business erosion and you remain wherever you are in terms of the scale of the business so structurally think San Fermin shaping up in terms of long term growth prospects okay - by the way is quite active in today's session as we mentioned at the start of the show all the pharma nifty constituents actually start showing good returns but besides that just when pull up the intraday chart of our window knew we've discussed that stock but it's considerably recovered from those lower levels think it touched 3 3 3 and now it is trading with caps about 3 percent at levels of 380 as official already highlighted it could be positive sign if the deal is called off because the leverage will get reduced with Shanghai good afternoon this is enough need the other reformist talk want to talk about is these laboratories now before you know of it 19 crisis hit our markets and the market started to tumble this was one of the out performers in the pharma park the bees the potted trees just that feature in your list among your top picks in this space so basically don't have coverage on the stock but as such DBS has been the best stock in the space if we look at the last say 10 years they continue to clock secular growth lately they have announced about some supply disruptions but think this would be temporary and doesn't really change the fundamentals of the stalker asking is there is lot of trading activity around the stock today it's up on the future side also there are lot of looks like there lot of long positions being taken in terms of fundamentals futur informer know last one some time around they announced they would be raising funds as well and if they repay their NCDs recently how is this one stacking up among all the other pharma companies also torrent is preferred name among investors just because they have very they have been very disciplined about the capital allocation so they they have prioritized capital capital allocation to the right places they were very large India business and they have been the most have been most aggressive in terms of building this India business so they have US business but they don't they haven't gone gone too aggressive into building this business where where most companies have actually faltered so they have taken in terms of allocating capital and India business becoming significantly larger for them and continuing the continuing to contribute to no teeth growth so company will continue to throw cash flows which which is very important which is actually become very important now for investors they people to be in balance sheets that keep generating cash rather than be into stocks which are leveraged and have continued to need to and they need to continue to borrow more very business so this is one stock which can generate cash for its own business and continue to grow okay and it's looking pretty good in today's session we shall be leave it in that note appreciate you joining us and taking us through your views on the pharma companies in pack as whole which is the flavor of the day but on the other side you've got DF C's which are reeling under pressure stocks like shaitaan transport that's falling 16% it's also your top or no lose it for the day you've got Chola manlove investments as well which is falling about 12 to 13 percent canal before me thank you just want your view on these NBF C's which have corrected quite sharply to do you initiate fresh shot anywhere within this space transport for example now the magnitude of fall in day itself is so faster that if someone wants to really short then needs to her the deposit will keep the stop-loss also so yes there is more downside definitely remaining there blue on deliver said is much lower much open so Shri Rama transport can be shorted with the stop loss of say 595 and with target of say 400 but one needs to keep one thing in mind that due to volatility the stop-loss may get triggered out on internet one needs to wait for the closing of such counters to come but again and this level on such trifle eternity would not merely advise anyone to go short because the structure is definitely weak but the risk reward ratio in this part of ten is not really clearly that Believe It or Not canal thank you very much for joining us this afternoon you know we still watching them screams leave two and half percent ill award the nifty eight thousand and if in the next half an hour see the setting pressure where sin could reach eight thousand on the downside and then remember again truncated extremely drunk age we just three trading sessions next week as Monday and Friday both are holidays so watch out for that and the nifty banter which is at about five and half percent will stop taking your queries now beginning lot of queries from our viewers as well just wanna start by taking query from Neil Patel he is asked from fundamental call on me to finance you guys since you're with us and since we've already seen know some commentaries coming in from the number on Finance with regards to the disbursements on land the payments 40% payments are also happening so they are not too worried what would the fire be on some of these gold financials and Masood in particular - hi regarding this gold finance think the gold prices are very much stable so there should not be any worry and the last quarter number q3 number for both finance was just fantastic Ian growth is also sustainable is growing at the sustainable growth rate and believe that the profitability will be in line with expectation for at least few for number as concern because the next year would be difficult to predict so as far as the stability is there in the lending business they are in - think that should be there it should be good rate for 600 rupees if anybody is having in portfolio stock and stock is already connected from 950 or all time high to 600 so that correction has happened so one should hold on to that and they raise fund via NCD also so they then reap it some partial part of that also so that way it shows the financial condition for the company and balance sheet both are running very strong ok next query it's from your gauge but in once technical do you want new car sugar sugar police you want to take this one should be rain occur the way the mid are falling apart think we should not get into this counter if somebody's having this talk think that there could be more pin on downside there's no need to connect because if was just goes to the mid cab hundred again 50/50 ratio chart and think there is more pain and in fact you know even if we get pullback in the Nifty Mid Cap index in the next two days which is bound to take place but this space is going to underperform the unity index so there is no point into getting carried away binding and momentum in today ready which we have in mid cap stock inside that would be right apportion to get out of it alright think we have one last query that we have times one that comes in from yoga should hot and think ok I've already taken as query so maybe I'll take somebody else's query and that is diffusion lockdown impact on home loan company so housing finance companies you get it should quick view and believe at all invest in many of the housing finance company the overall housing finance companies we have some bearbette days ahead for at least one makes one or two quarters because of the slowdown impact and overall it is lending business where the banks and NDF use will be much more stringent in terms of dispersing loan and real estate sectors are also going slow so think the housing finance companies are not the right one to have an investment into so at least if one can avoid then definitely would shade would say that the things they should avoid the housing finance companies into investment ok we leave it at that Yogesh thank you so much for joining us in this lecture will have my usual she also joining us in just few moments to take us through his fundamental opinion but Nuge mean the shape of the market still at this point 20 minutes to go for closing doesn't look all that way it doesn't just want to very quickly before we get into our next fundamental guess just mark what the European markets are up to 1.3 percent lower for the footsie Dax down about 0.7 percent CAC about 1.3 2 percent and as we said the European futures are indicating start which is in the red so not looking all that great either as we speak of course sir Axis Bank is now overtaking ICICI Bank as the top loser down about 9% ICCA banks still down about 8 up 8.2% clutch of other names some of the well performing innings like Asian Paints as well have now taken it taken hit today off substantially down about 5% in the session at the name though just before get enough one negates British the name to talk about his coated Bank after that sharp drop that we saw day before yesterday another Viper Sun shaved off today where is the nearest possible support so what the bank Kutesa yeah in fact you know I've been quite vocal regarding financial services and nifty bank stocks think there is more to come I'm sorry get to work in sound too bearish but you know this dogs they've had strong rally in fact there is period from 2018 onwards that they were the leading markets they were leading the markets if just look at the court of bank sgfc panic and think we are entering into phase where these noodles won't be in play for long period of time so they will turn out to be under performers and won just mess is cleared you know one some other stock some other sectors would turn emergent to leader and they will take the markets higher but think for next one and half years at least you know I'm expecting the banks and bank heavy the bank because 200 perform and won't be surprised if Bank goes below the thousand mark also okay well by the way it's not just banks the NBF sees - as we highlight it in the market open have been taken to the cleaners which she on transport Chola finance max financial equity holdings you name it each of these are in the red here not from way through super M&Ms well how about whether if used this crisis as an opportunity use the term his years of experience and past cycles that he's seen number of times in this interaction to suggest that maybe it's time you start looking at some quality names listening those who were there in the markets in 2000 2001 or 2008 2009 would again remember that all you got by trying to watch all the news flow and what was happening in other markets was sleepless nights and going completely cross-eyed and bonkers trying to you know react to all those data points so my suggestion is you know don't look at that there will be correlations this is hyper market remember that you know the reason why there is money invested in stocks or other asset classes is because people are parking their surplus cash over there for some long-term objective now when you've got disruption of the kind that you having in the economies today people are liquidating some of their investments to get cash back into their core activities so when you hear about sovereign wealth fund which might need to liquidate assets it's because now there is call being made from the core this is normal but point being that those who have the ability who have the wherewithal to make use of this opportunity should do it and don't try to watch 20 news channels and 24 by 7 you know news flow across the world to take that determination there is only one cycle which eventually matters in terms of your long term investment outcomes and that's the valuation cycle institutions have been really supportive so every time you've seen big fi number that's almost been matched by any large di purchase that's true and the minute that goes back to the fact that you know think the SI pipeline has proved to be quite you know robust so far think all of us in the industry have been reaching out to investors to sort of handle them and encourage them to stay the course so do think the ETF lowers the SI flow is staying the course at this point I'm also seeing lot of the ETF money from PFS etcetera staying the course there will be some investors who have to liquidate simply as said because you know asset classes are the source of liquidity for those who are facing challenge in their core business activity or for that matter and running their house words so some of that is bound to happen but think the SI flow remains encouraging and that will continue to support the domestic markets to some extent but again you know these things keep changing over time you know 25 26 years of watching fi inflows in the market the fact remains that except for three years if have actually been net positive in Indian markets for you know 24 out of those 27 years whereas if you look at domestic flows they were very very irregular till about 2014 and then we have seen change so would hope that you know the next decade would continue to see domestic floors being robust but would not write off the foreign inflows as you the other point being now that we have seen these erratic moves with regards to funding fund activity market standpoint what is the one mouki variables you will be watching after you already spoke about valuations but anything else one needs to monitor to figure out whether or not this particular you know issue is going to Palma bass it's starting to form it may not be able to call the bottom but if the this the severity is featuring off you know sure that's great question and you know historically think what we've seen over time is that typically when you see this kind of spike in the market or rather fall in the market what actually spikes is volatility and typically you get to point where initially volatility tends to remain very high it still is quite high but over period of you know days weeks months you start to see the market volatility start to you know Peter off quite bit that has typically been good indication of the fact that you know the markets sort of trying to or let's say the more hyper participants have exited the market and the market is starting to find its feet wouldn't necessarily call it bottoming but certainly sign that the hyper volatile participants have exited and stocks in sense are now in the hands of people who are willing to think little bit more long term so think from that point of view volatility coming down normally good signal the second thing obviously from more economy and time line point of view we not we need to get past the lockdown we need to see how normalcy will come back normalcy is not going to be the flip of switch it's going to be gradual process of understanding how we can move back towards some sense of normality that we had in the early part of March and think as far as the economy is concerned the historical indicators which have indicated consumer confidence coming back is the trend in consumer durable purchases and auto purchases and increase in credit normally means the in the economy is getting lubrication and that's again lead signal that you will start to see economic activity pick up all right markets are holding on I'll say we've not reached you know that level of 8,000 so the selling pressure which is in there thing since the start of the session today has been 16 we've not gone further lower than 80 50 guess 80 74 currently on nifty nifty Bank at levels of 17,000 224 we've got my race Joshi off William O'Neal who joins us right now in the show hi my ratio good afternoon and thanks lot for joining us think one stop which lot of market participant study in highlighting is an IT tech it's been quite BK in the last two or three sessions and today it's fallen maybe on the news that British Airways which happens to be there one of the biggest clients by the way is laying off its employees and if I'm not mistaken marriage this was the darling of the markets within this space in the last one year or two how would you approach this if somebody is holding the stock of an IT tech in the portfolio afternoon no me no clearly think if you probably look at the business segments that an IT tech caters to aviation insurance think all these pieces are the spaces which have got hit the most specifically think the aviation sector itself but think the order flows that probably come through from this sector at this point of time and the expectations of all the different sub segments as mentioned earlier as well think there seems to be some amount of disconnect on how the entire order protocol panel for next few orders now in that scenario itself if you're probably looking at big orders coming through and discretionary spending not increasing you've got issues at hand to the existing order book might be able to have it usability for the next few partners but what after that think it's going to be very slow and gradual process in terms of limping time for the industry as whole and therefore yes think the sector's that it caters to in the expectations of the currency or the currency realization hit that the stock can have along with the trickle-down effect in terms of the pressures on pivot margins being played out and the concentration of for the top ten clients in terms of the overall degree itself but think this is these are some of the concerns that probably laying out very very justifiably in the stock price as you know it remains the same how lot of these organizations believe or rather their clients considering their there could be layoffs due to over 19 crisis not just here I'm talking worldwide and which could have impact on you know certain players there will be some collateral damage that could be seen but myrish anything specific because the auto sales number and it was given fact you know March would be terrible terrible month for all these companies but anything which still stood out for you any auto company or to Wang that you're looking at closely so clearly think yes you're absolutely right think the numbers were expected to be very very soft in terms of the entire transition effect taking place from vs4 to bs6 but what is probably transpired at this point of time and looking at the way the NDF sees have got battered town think that the more supply dynamics are going to be very very key factor for the sector itself so so far the OEM players with its four wheelers could be the farm equipment manufacturers and there's going to be painful partner to come so think the earnings readjustment is something that the state would clearly have to do for Phi 20 nightly at it was return of year for the auto sector as whole but as the pain elongates and as the demand dynamics come back very very slowly for the sector as good over the next two quarters think is going to be very very painful period the second element also is that with bs6 comes into account mean the price increases are going to be very very evident and whether that has some amount of deferment when the demand cycle itself will remain very very weak think both and earnings disappointment expected to come to and continue for the better part of my 21 along with expectations of de Madrid completely expected to take the few partners more think it's double binding kind of in effect for auto companies auto Ang's obviously will react to how the or who's the OEMs will be here large offsetting partner we probably happens from the replacement market itself but that is not sufficient enough in my opinion to probably have an overriding clue how the earnings will play out digital stuff can remain very very soft so I'm being very very cautious for hot water Wang's valuations have become very very attractive but have they become absolute wise at this level considering the backdrop in terms of inner Dean's disappointment think it's better to reach out for the Potters numbers see how the management commentary is and how the landscape profit looks for majority of these players moving forward perfectly sharp valuations of course have corrected and corrected across the board outside autos is value but it remains to be seen whether one can take bit and valuation basis right now look at mothers and sue me one of the marquee companies it's trading at levels of 50 55 that's corrected sharply from those levels of where it is right now but one nifty stock wanna pull up is Titan which is falling to almost 7 to 8 percent right now Pradesh coming in the charts on Titan at 860 62 would you take any fresh pepper in the dancin days was by to be 930 untighten yes this talk has moved very very volatile in last few days and think that could be more pressure and outside think it is not done today that could be follow on selling in next few days also if you look at the overall chart structure we had positive reversal point & figure charts that failed to sustain for long period of time and and thereafter it soon made you know bearish candle bearish quantity the you know pattern also and now it is likely to move towards the mark of eight twenty eight one zero index today so we let you go let's get your closing thoughts and closing stock of three as well it's gonna be truncated week so would you like to take any position to carry forward into next week think he in case we get pullback you know from because of some positive global uses any but the rallies are will be sold into that is what we have seen last few days because even if market momentum on the upside is there for few days it feels to sustain so think that selling on rather to the right approach and you figured out some space something like Auto mid-cap you know and and something mcg you know sense it is showing signs of fresh weakness so this space is going to underperform be discussed about the banking also so think finding out the Related weakness and the stocks which are showing relative weakness would be the right way to approach the market rather than going going into the pullback Rossum buy the stocks okay British will let you go on that No thank you so much for joining in this off and have great weekend all right Myra sure you know just coming on some of these metal companies now you know we spoke to the management of Jays feel and want to open in aa fun metals in general and how do you think now the China is getting back on stream is this going to be an added advantage for companies that are exporting the likes of Jays feel have said that English period of students we've actually not seen any damaged exports have gone up and they are managing pretty well it was certain extent the wing think few legs of the metal space might still hold Appa right in the overall demand contraction because the rest of the world properly skilled means in limbo with lock downs and shutdowns and again think recovery that one really expects is going to be very very shallow so think the demand contraction is is stark reality of half of what we need to believe where earnings and GDP hits are assumed to be taking big nor for the next few quarters look at the Olivia realizations for metals whether it's Paris or non-ferrous think they're actually crashed down and even if input costs have come off and go to certain extent input cost have actually gone up for the past few months but it's know cooking code with an iron content of more than 62 which is most premium variety think are expected to see volumes probably the meaning that at at subdued levels with realizations coming up think the obvious operating leverage that metal companies need to create that element thought you might be missing now if you pan out the domestic demand and the global demand at this point of time think export markets few of markets might still hold up but large element of the export markets will still being soft for the next few months domestically again think there will be expected demand coming through but again think walk to this car to be probably looking at the monsoon season coming through so yes think this quarter there might be some element in terms of stocking and expectations of execution improving but how much this is offset the the foreman realizations and subdued volumes think that is matter to be asked sorry think there are some pain points for the second row whether its ferrous or non-ferrous let's look at what else we analyzed the large caps quite bit my range good afternoon Amira gia this pain that we seeing not unexpected of course at the NBF sea space in the broader markets as well mean strong franchisees think was Morgan Stanley or one of the other brokerages we spoke about the franchise strength of Sri on transport being so strong but that stock is down max despite the deal being done down about 13 percent Chola extremely strong franchise generally is down about 13 percent in what this is this is what money leaving left right center and not seeing any buyers and are you tempted into any of these okay as said valuations like the auto auto buying space that become extremely attractive for the NBS universe there's rule for anything couple of issues which are expected to plague the ordinance trajectory for NDF sees think the demand outlook itself like for the rest of universe if you see long down shutdowns think how's the loan growth and the demand expected to play out for nvf sees over all over the next few months the second element obviously is the asset quality pressures on their balance sheet so what deliquency is specifically in terms of the unsecured broker or even in terms of the microfinance book or the book related to lot of these financials specifically for the global markets think if there is any school or any hint of some deliquency aspects being based think the asset quality issues coming back to the for the thorough obviously is the mismatch in terms but the bond repayment which again kind cost some amount of distress in terms of cash inflows outflows for few in the FCS which are probably ideally worth leveraged at this point of time so the one really needs to balance out the better rated and EFC is from the lots of deuterated NDF sees at this point of time yes valuations become very very attractive but the landscape itself is looking little bit patchy yes the market conditions are such that think the price itself is indicating the kind of damage that it is done but think good quality and vfc is think should be kept on the watch list as the numbers come out think and as this pandemic gets over over the next few weeks think these better rated and gives is will be the first to bounce back very very sharply or the next movements thirty second if you can do you track fun-ball Dom Puccini fundamentally it's been on roll the last five days yes do and again think if you probably look at the dynamics for the sector as whole think the sector dynamics are probably improving at this point of time one gram food with its distillery operations and with 160k LED plant being operational think the kind of sales that one can generate specifically on the distillery part with higher margins and higher realizations think that is going to affect the overall P&L growth the core business again think in expectations of for the carryover inventory and what realizations couple can fetch at 32 32 and half with inventory at around thirty one thirty one point two five think there is some element in terms of burdening stability being maintained and that equity probably remaining far more equitable at this point of time comfort to the other so if anybody's holding on would really suggest 1.7 percent over the last seven days but let's start wrapping up the market Marie stay on be dating closing thoughts from you banks have been taking on the cleaner is the ending about five percent lower for the Nifty banks so not the best of shapes for the banking space to be in but let let down and start off with the losers first let down by the likes of Axis Bank it is sin Bank and ICICI Bank those are the three top losers Axis Bank comes back to 325 as weakness in tighten today at eight sixty three down about seven percent three cement continues to grind lower think I'll protect you as another good day of town about three percent and Maruti Suzuki is knocking on the doors of 4,000 think briefly slip below that as well but four thousand five or thereabouts is where it is shutting shop the good news is if can call it with me is really is there side of course farm are doing well there are couple of losers which have just bounced back today so Reliance Industries do not as high as it was in the pre open session marginally in the green bharti airtel marginally in the green and Bajaj finance is not having very big red dates just down about half percent so this is sign that is some bit of setting which is now hitting or passive selling which is getting over in Bajaj manner maybe time will tell but for now just treating marginally Indy red remember there's con call after the Bajaj finance management think on the one Monday and will be interested to hear what they are saying is that but the large cans have been decimated what what about the broadening of the spectrum Lumi Nina to market Ruth has been maintained think that's positive sign so it's just even-steven for the second year of the drought so broader markets relatively outperforming the frontline but before move on to the details just want to pull up the intraday chart of core Tech Mahindra Bank think there was some development which came in on the NS DL website the stock has recovered in the last five to 10 minutes of traits from thousand eighty seven being the daily low now somewhere trading at 11:58 think the FBI limit has come to about 74 which is also sectoral gap of 74 percent inst think the ball is in MSCI is quote now to include the stock in its index so on back up that you did see somewhat of recovery for Kodak minor but coming back to the broader market Shriram transport was your top loser among the nifty 500 index so as overall as well we've been highlighting how NBF seeds have been weak 16% card coming in there RBI Bank was down 15% and trade another NBF seeds from the likes of max financial Chola one level down between 12 to 13 percent an IT tech as well recent game today's fall was maybe on account of British Airways spending few employees but we still need to get some clarification on that front SPL down 11% and trade then you had stocks like JB chemicals and also something like NCCM and financially which went down and you also had paint companies coming under pressure suppose your paints roots are down about 7% on the gaming side manga 5500 constituents who had rajesh it sports which was your top gainer of 16 percent then you had something like Gujarat alkali is gaining 14 percent Apollo Hospitals also rallied that was up about 10 percent and also stocks like national fertilizer which rallied about seven to eight percent Loris the bora trees also rallied about seven to eight percent and the good news is also of course we're ending the day in dread it's an extended weekend but volatility was down 30 on the trot which can be seen as positive sign let's see there is u-turn in the markets maybe the recovery can be sharper but Edina in terms of contribution among the nifty constituents today once again the list was dominated in the dot downside by the banks yep it was Nina just wanna highlight ICICI Bank which is the top loser followed by HDFC which is down 35 points along with HDFC Bank which is down about 20 points in fact with thanks to and it is already weights at the top of the list from the day nurse idea is regaining about 20 points and sama Reliance Industries fixed our points applying ongc for your top 5 gainer aside from that just want to take quick look at the weekly close on the index notices at the end of the week it was truncated week so you start seeing the figures from last Friday onwards that is the 20th of March and since then you've got dip of 6.7% in the me index with the big grants coming in from Hale 16% to the last five days the trade but modest Patrol EBP say I'm just good days trading think the beginning of the week stun pharmacy law ITC ONGC of some of the keener some of the losers for the week included the likes of all the back so no doubt the disparity and auto science in autos so you had say say bio-port of Mahindra Bank you think 15 17 percent molecule down that is the sophistication Lucas with Chandler yeah he Bank of India HDFC the dominant losers were banks aside from that the breath the market Vienna's positive 785 stocks advanced 7 to fade in the red quick closing comments from you mileage as we step into you know just session opposites truncated me anything that need to keep our eyes are drawn in terms of even data that you will be watching broad aspects mean think the wavier looking at markets at this point of time think highly dependent in terms of how to sent contagion news comes out over the next few days and weeks and again think it's given that the economic deleveraging that the entire economic system in the world is facing at this point of time with the numbers that we properly saw in terms of the jobless claims for US markets the hit that lot of industries are expecting to face and the GDP seen taken off globally and for respective countries as role think it's it's obvious that the first half is going to be very very tricky think as the pandemic gets over and this is our thought process over the next few weeks think the markets will start coming back to realities in terms of how the entire perspective will get to play it out and do think all these numbers will get stated in terms of the price movement for that the index and the stock levels individually think that would be an appropriate time of the next few days or weeks as the market probably starts ought to be now and going to contradict where what it means but think makes few weeks will give that opportunity to probably get into boot sectors food stocks as we've been discussing so till that point of time my entire thesis has always been think tons of capital stay on cash there is no need to probably rush into the markets at this point of time but yes create watch list of potential winners over the next few quarters where are these constraint hold up so think selective on-farm selectable consumption and selectively on few of these banks to operative and BF sees would be the way going forward thank you very much for joining us this afternoon and with that is goodbye from us as well Nene Rajan even the entire team that spooked show together it's long week you know have safe week stay at home and as the prime minister said on Sunday at 9 p.m. make sure that all of you guys were on your balcony is holding candle or holding torch or even your mobile flashlights thank you so much according to recent report women today contribute nearly 74 percent of real estate buying decisions this includes 32 percent of single women buyers across the top eight cities and finally women are not just buying homes to live in they're also investing in real estate think real estate definitely is the step above jewelry so it's my personal endeavor that 4 of Ankara and Provident are the first choice or the first place women home buyers come to buy home think it's that that feeling of kind of not because there was whole maiya TVJ got the veggies from judo shop he gives the right rate yes papa decided 55 inch TV on this wall super I'll write out the check tomorrow no you don't will with my own money Wow how come look at this advertisement 30% short returns on investment am also going to invest my money so vegetables only from total shock but investment advice from anyone papa trusting strangers advice but what about how many places can you be at once