How much progress have we made on climate change

planet Earth is amazing 510 million square kilometers under blue sky granted most of that is saltwater but the planet also hosts Lush rainforests scorching deserts grasslands Tundra mountains and plains inhabited by rich diversity of life it is in fact the only place in the known universe capable of supporting Life as we know it but for the past three centuries that blue sky has become increasingly choked with pollution the level of invisible carbon dioxide gas has increased by more than 50% since the start of the Industrial Revolution as carbon dioxide is very good at trapping Heat this has raised the average temperature of the planet by more than 1° at the start of the 21st century it was predicted that continuing carbon emissions would warm the planet by about 4° by the year 2100 this would be catastrophic food networks would collapse extreme weather events like heat waves would become devastating life on Earth would enter into unprecedented territory but preventing this future seemed impossible almost every human activity produced carbon dioxide mostly because our energy was overwhelmingly supplied by burning fossil fuels coal oil and gas to generate electricity produce heat and move ourselves around but the Earth as we knew it was at stake so people all around the world World got to work this video is about what they did and what difference they've made the single largest source of carbon emissions is the production of electricity and heat representing almost onethird of all emissions because burning fossil fuels especially coal and gas have historically dominated power generation but they're no longer the only options renewable sources like solar panels and wind turbines emit far less carbon per unit of power generated over their lifetimes and globally over 4,000 gaw of Renewables capacity has been built almost all since the year 2000 over 30% of all electricity now comes from renewable sources but that's the global average in Uruguay around 90% of electricity comes from Renewables largely wind but also hydr power and last year the country went for 10 straight months on 100% clean grid South Australia may also hit 100% clean grid as soon as 2027 thanks to wind and solar and other places are not far behind the North Sea might be the best place in the world for offshore wind and the current roll out of wind power here enables the UK and Denmark to aim for clean grid by 2030 and the Netherlands by 2035 India aims to power 10 million households with rooftop solar adding 500 gaw of capacity by 2030 but we can't discuss the roll out of Renewables and not mention where most of them are being installed China China is building approximately twice as much new wind and solar as the rest of the world combined it's still the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide though that's because of its huge population the average person in China has carbon footprint only 2third the size of the average Americans and its emissions have been rising sharply but not for much longer the huge surge of solar and wind Construction in 2024 kept overall Chinese emissions lower than in 2023 for 10 months of the year and every year the amount of Renewables added to the grid increases this emissions reduction almost certainly isn't one-off but systematic change many analysts predict that China's emissions due to Coal its other major source of electricity will start to fall this year and new phase of low carbon to run nuclear power is being built in China and around the world with over 70 gaw currently slowly under construction and generation hitting an all-time high this year China's new electricity system will see its overall emissions huge fraction of global emissions peak in the next few years it may feel like we have made no progress in the fight against climate change but the power sector shows that is not the case in fact carbon emissions due to generating electricity likely already already peaked 2 years ago and will fall even under high forecasts for growth in demand such as for AI were just building that many Renewables and investing that much in grids and storage to overcome the intermit of Renewables in Chile The Oasis atakama project is being built 142 gaw hour battery enough to power Peak demand in the country on its own but peaking electricity emissions is not the same as overall emissions peaking because not everything runs on electricity the next two largest sources of emissions are Heating and transport around the world most people heat themselves and Water by burning fuel often natural gas in boiler and move themselves around by burning an oil-based product like Petrol in an engine this has long been the case but in some parts of the world alternative approaches are now more popular and where they are more popular tells us something about the near future let's look at China and Norway in Norway most households are not heated by boiler but by heat pump fridge running in Reverse basically powered by electricity and last year nine out of 10 new vehicles bought in Norway were EVS with the country set to phase out the sale of non-electric Vehicles soon maybe even this year meanwhile in China most cars now sold are electric or hybrid uptake has just exploded in recent years that's partly because China dominat the manufacturer of EVS but also because of what it has in common with Norway cheap electricity in Norway it comes from hydrop power in China from solar and wind where electricity is cheap it just makes Financial sense to Electrify Heating and transport in fact while on average around the world little over 20% of all energy is used as electricity in Norway it's 47% in Guangdong Province it's 49% and in Jang Province it's 51% as Renewables particularly solar roll out across the world the price of electricity will fall making electrified systems such as in transport and heating but also industrial processes much more appealing as well as being more efficient those systems are then tied to the carbon emissions of the electric grid which being based on Renewables will be low much lower than running them on fossil fuels these sectors will see their emissions start to Tumble in coming years as electrification percentages rise of course decarbonizing transport is much more complicated than just replace cars with electric cars you can watch my whole video about that and this process can be accelerated with appropriate government policies this has happened in China and Norway but now elsewhere too in East Africa Ethiopia banned the import of internal combustion engine vehicles in 2024 encouraging the development of EV infrastructure while while in Kenya and Rwanda policies are building charging stations and shifting both public transport and two wheel Mobility like scooters to electric vehicles both to reduce emissions but also improve the poor air quality in cities winwin the world has made huge progress reducing emissions from power generation and to lesser extent Heating and transport at the start of the century scientists predicted 4 degrees of warming maybe more by 2100 now based on current actions by our governments we will most likely see between 2.2 and 3.4 with the best guess being 2.7 degrees of warming Global emissions may have already peaked and if not we'll do so soon emissions in advanced economies are already back to their levels from 50 years ago that's huge but obviously still not enough at 2.7 de we will still see enormous negative impacts on Wildlife Agriculture and public health every tenth of degree of warming extra makes the world more unstable dangerous place but that 2.7 de is based on real world government policies what we're actually doing now it doesn't account for increasing our Ambitions or recent Innovations becoming practical at scale if government's announced 2030 targets are reached along with any legally binding longer term targets we're likely looking at 2.1 de by the year 2100 yes that's still too high but every 10th of degree makes difference and there are many areas where we've only just started to see real alternatives to the status quo practical ways to reduce emissions in the coming decades we haven't for example talked about Iron and Steel long labeled as hard to decarbon because of the huge energy required to melt iron supplied by burning coal the industry represents around 7% of all emissions but in recent years alternatives to Coal have become economical and supported by government policy such as using green hydrogen and using electric furnaces which can of course be powered by Clean sources producing green steel globally 43% of planned new steel furnaces are electric and China which produces half the world's steel now only approves new electric furnaces that process scrap metal cement is another industry with large carbon footprint only slightly less than steel due to its energy intense production but also the fundamental chemical reaction that produces cement releasing CO2 some are pushing the industry to change the recipe for cement but as it's the second most traded commodity in the world only second to water that's tall order so the industry will likely need to rely on carbon capture units being retrofitted to existing cement plants and these already exist they are currently being slowly implemented actually made video visiting one of them with the right policy support both steel and cement have potential to slash their emissions over 10% of global emissions in the coming decades we've also not yet mentioned work on the other side of the carbon equation by protecting natural carbon sinks like forests we not only suck more CO2 out of the air but also reduce emissions of carbon through deforestation and of course protect biodiversity and since the year 2000 carbon emissions due to land use change about half of which is due to deforestation have reduced by 30% in the Amazon deforestation has halved in the past 2 years all around the world small local projects seek to restore lost tree cover plant new mangroves and protect land from development there are also enormous projects like 1 billion trees in New Zealand and the great green wall of Africa though these have many problems of their own deforestation is still occurring at far too fast rate but slowing it in the tropics has been quiet small victory for the past few decades that looks set to continue and in temperate regions we've actually been net gaining Forest cover since the year 2000 clearly it can be done working with rather than against Natural systems will play key role in our trajectory this Century but you may have noticed something about this video an area of the world where no large projects have been mentioned what about America here emissions have decreased by 20% since the year 2000 but earlier this year the US elected Donald Trump back into the White House who made it clear that climate change was not not priority that Environmental Protections will be rolled back and that the country will leave the Paris agreement again this is obviously going to have negative impacts on emissions both in America and around the world confidence in climate progress has been shaken many seem to believe that his reelection has killed the clean energy transition slamming the door on our future this is not true for one thing America represents around 1/8 of global carbon emissions that means that while American emissions May Plateau for the next few years personally think big increase is unlikely they represent small minority and as we have seen other large emitters like China and Europe are making ambitious plays to reduce their emissions but more importantly do you know where else is investing huge amounts into Renewables that we haven't mentioned yet either the Middle East in fact the Middle East is the fastest growing Renewables Market at outside of China countries like Oman the UAE Qatar and Saudi Arabia are developing huge solar projects just last month the UAE announced the world's largest round-the-clock solar and Battery facility even larger than the Oasis atakama coming online in the next 2 years these countries are built on oil and gas and they're now plowing money into Renewables because they recognize it as the future globally twice as much was invested last year in Clean Energy Technologies and grid upgrades as was invested in fossil fuels the fact is the energy transition isn't happening because it's the environmentally right thing to do it now just makes economic sense solar and to lesser extent wind are now so cheap that they are preferable to burning fossil fuels in many cases making Electric Systems cost competitive it's for this reason that heat pumps will continue to out sell gas boilers in the US individual states will continue rolling out Renewable Power Generation and investing in geothermal power the US has the real potential to lead the world here and after all it does involve drilling baby drilling one person even if they are the most powerful person in the world is not going to derail the transition to clean energy and by extension massively reduced carbon emissions that transition is now inevitable and happening at pace around the world the question is just how quickly will it happen will it be fast enough will we get to Net Zero fast enough we've already brought expected warming down from 4 to 2.7 de if we follow through on our medium term targets we can get that down to 2.1 if we are ambitious and push vet zero and utilize all the strategies in this video and more besides we can still limit warming to less than 2° we have lived through period of ever increasing climate impacts but also ever increasing ambition on climate we need this to continue every tenth of degree saved matters but as the re-election of trump shows we cannot take it for granted that progress will continue to accelerate don't want you to come away from this video thinking we have done enough on climate change or we are moving fast enough because sadly that is still not the case the Great Adventure of securing our future is in Jeopardy if we do not keep climate as core concern in who we vote to lead us who we choose to work for and we spend our money but most importantly it's not an adventure we need to start it's an adventure that has already made great strides an adventure we need to continue and see through to its final destination maybe you can be part of this great story keeping our Earth amazing built this 1 to 100 million scale Earth from scratch over the course of 2 weeks and also filmed the process so if you would like to see an extra video of me talking through how made this you can watch that right now if you have nebula subscription post all my videos on nebula day before releasing them on YouTube as well as exclusive content like this model making video but also me playing Daybreak with team of climate scientists and whole documentary about making my new YouTube studio all of these videos can be 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in the description by the way $3 month think is incredible value so that link again is go. nebula.com video attached to this video thank you for watching and massive thank you to JD who 3D printed most of the icons that you saw me place around the globe you may have heard of JD's band they're called the longest Johns her sisters died from and mine but she'll run for decades more she'll run for decades more and also thank you to Nick from the progress playbook for chatting to me and suggesting some of the projects featured in this video do check out the progress Playbook which is linked in the references down below for regular good news stories about the energy transition also could not have made this video without the support of my patrons people who support me on patreon.com oxf get early access to my videos exclusive content every month notably vlog that goes behind the scenes this month blog is going to be all about basically how this project came to be little bit about how sourced 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