Question predictions paper 1 2026

Hello, good morning, happy afternoon, good evening, and welcome to this A-level philosophy 2026 question prediction video. Let's just get the the preamble out of the way first. So, this video is going out months early to patrons of my Patreon. If you are purchasing or downloading this video through subscription, please please please do not share it beyond yourself as these prediction videos make up portion of my livelihood. I'm selling them and so, yeah, if you think they have value, which think they do, please continue to allow them to be purchased by others rather than just distributing them freely. yeah, think that's all need to say about that. It will will be freely available to others, don't worry if you're worried about other people closer to the exam. Right, let's dive into the predictions. All right, first up, as usual, epistemology. guesses for epistemology for 2026. As usual, the shorter questions are harder to predict, harder to guess. The longer questions are easier to predict. But, let's start at the top anyway. Three markers are usually on some short sort of definition. Very very hard to guess cuz there's so many different definitions you could be asked about. Along this row is all the stuff that's been asked about before in A2 in in in A-level papers, not AS papers, but they don't really seem to factor into A2 questions that come up. And so, it's kind of anyone's guess, but I'm going to go for, why not, something on infallibilism cuz that's never appeared as three-marker, or maybe doubt, like the waves of doubt or something. different ways of doubt, Cartesian doubt. Moving on to five-markers. So, you'll see on the next two slides, with five-markers, we're now looking really at what things have they not asked about yet in epistemology cuz there's this this rule apparently which is the examiners need to make sure they're examining the whole of the specification. They they can't repeat specific details or at least not too much. So this this is why it's actually correct quite straightforward to guess fair amount of of philosophy A-level questions. So we're basically looking at what hasn't come up yet. That includes the time lag criticism of direct realism has never been asked about yet in short answer question so that would be make lot of sense for five marker or the second part of 12 marker. also we'll see criticisms of idealism. lots of those haven't come up yet. So knowing those really well would be very sensible for the 2026 summer exam, May, June, whatever it whenever it is exam. I'm recording this quite long time before the exam. That's why don't have the date fixed in my mind at present. It will be fixed in it later. for they've also not asked about Bar- Berkeley's distinction between primary and secondary qualities yet. So that would be very sensible thing to come up. Doesn't guarantee these things will but it just their their likelihood is very high. This is what has made if you look if you care to look at previous videos on the YouTube channel, this is what made has made previous predictions correct is is betting on something that's high likelihood. So these have high likelihood. 12 marker bit harder. Maybe Cartesian inductions. So we haven't had the intuition and deduction thesis for while. So remember this is Descartes's way of building his thought system up using deductions based on an original priori intuition. To be honest, it could come up as 25-marker cuz it hasn't appeared for while, but if it wasn't in the 25-marker again could appear as as 12-marker. Or and these could could be blended, but suppose that'd be bit of an unusually difficult question. Why not response response to skepticism about the reality of the external world. I'll talk more about those predictions in minute on the next two slides and why I'm making them, but first let's just talk about the 25-marker because this is both simultaneously the easiest to to guess, but also the most important to guess because you're getting so many marks for your 25-marker if you're doing it well. My money this year would be on innatism because it's been so long since we've had innatism. Or like just mentioned, the intuition and deduction thesis. Doesn't mean it won't be anything else. The examiners do occasionally repeat things from 2 years ago. They never repeat something from 1 year ago. So they would be completely breaking with pattern and tradition to ask about indirect realism. Or to be honest, really, they've never done 2-year repeat on theories of perception. So that kind of rules out any theory of perception 25-marker at all. Which leaves you all these ones. So JTB, but it's it's been quite recent, only 2 years ago. Philosophical skepticism, well, that is to do with theories of perception if you think about it. Intuition and deduction thesis, so that's why that comes in at second. Idealism is theory of perception, so is direct realism. sorry, that those were adjacent. So it is it is possible. It's just unlikely if you look at things. So yeah, guess distant third would be or third would be idealism. Then direct realism. Well, that'd be very odd to do indirect realism and then direct realism cuz they're so similar. Highly unlikely. So maybe idealism is third guess. but then innate ideas has been so long ago. Little extra tip on innate ideas, there is somewhere out there on the internet perfect answer, or so, you know, as close to perfect model answer as you can get from AQA, like an exemplar answer. the link, believe, is in another one of my videos. In any case, will be making at some point, hopefully soon, video going through that exemplar answer, which it would be very useful to watch if if innatism does come up. So, that will be available at some point to purchase from my Patreon as well, as an individual video, or if you are subscribed, it's coming. It's coming soon. So, there's bit of backlog of videos to upload to fulfill my my commitments on the Patreon. Apologies that there's been bit of delay, just busyness teaching, but the videos are coming. So, those are those are straightforward predictions for epistemology. Let's see why with the shorter answer questions. Okay, so, the reason I've predicted some of these things is because here are the epistemology specification areas that have not yet come up in any shorter exam question in the exam. So, these are high likelihood to come up, and it's all the stuff I've mentioned. Infallibilism, direct realism, and time lag indirect realism leads to skepticism about the external world. my days, misspelled. No, it was misspelled the previous page, sorry. It was Berkeley card on the previous page. This is how you spell Bishop Berkeley's actual name. Apologies for that. his attack on primary and secondary qualities, that distinction. they haven't done Yeah, these criticisms of idealism, illusion, hallucination, and solipsism. We haven't had Plato and Leibniz's arguments for innate ideas, but if that is what the 25-marker is, it won't be shorter answer question on any of on on that, because they don't repeat topics across questions within particular exams. Descartes' deductions, so intuition and deduction thesis as short question. Some of the the the later deductions of those in in in in those have not have not yet come up. They haven't asked about the first and second waves of doubt. They asked about the third, but not the first and second specifically. And Descartes and empiricist responses to skepticism. So, yeah, quite lot of stuff they haven't asked about yet and they need to cover all of the specification in the exams as as the years pass. So, these are things most likely to come up. Local versus global skepticism is here because this was on the list last year. so, actually they only crossed one thing off last year, which shows bit of repetition, but still this is this is numbers game. This is probabilities game. So, still revise everything. It makes sense to revise everything, but it makes sense to particularly concentrate on these things for epistemology for short answer questions, non-25 mark questions, because they have the highest likelihood of coming up. And I've said, you know, this for three-marker, this for potential 12-marker, and so on. But really they're interchangeable cuz nature of philosophy exam, you could ask three-marker question or five-marker or 12-marker on virtually any of these. It just depends how you phrase it, which particular specific bit you're picking out. So, don't get too religious or worried about what specific type of question. I'm just saying short answer questions here. It could be that it's like 12-marker on infallibilism or JTB plus infallibilism response would be very sensible 12-mark question. and it's three-marker on the intuition and deduction thesis, say. Okay? So, they could they could come in in in any of the the short answer questions. Let's keep going. Right, this brings us to ethics. Actually, in this video so I'm just going to do paper one cuz that's what normally do. And then there'll be another paper two video coming as as For ethics, what can we say? Yeah, it's sim- it's similar business. There's more areas of ethics that have not yet come up in an in any of the exam papers at all. Hence, this very broad prediction. Any criticism not covered already, but I'm not just leaving you with that. It also says, "See next slide." Okay, so I'll talk more about that in sec. But yeah, guesses. harder to predict as to repeat myself, but three marker, why not hedonistic or non-hedonistic utilitarianism. That's kind of random guess cuz there's so much, but that seems like sensible thing. They have to ask that at some point cuz it's such nice, easy, straightforward distinction to ask about. Now, this is better though. This is more specific. They've never yet They've done categorical imperative formulation one, but they've never yet done short answer question on categorical imperative formulation two. So, that also has to appear at some point, and that's very high likelihood to appear in the 2026 exam. Again, doesn't mean it definitely will, but we're playing the the numbers game here. So, it'll be very worth knowing the categorical imperative second formulation inside out. Talk about this one in bit. and yeah, 12 markers. So, the pattern with moral philosophy 12 markers is most often it's applied ethic question, e.g. in the specimen Sorry, in applied ethics question. Kant and lying, 2019 Aristotle simulated killing, bit of rogue in 2020, so it could could be something else in 2026. Also, in 2021 it was just Both of those were just Sorry, for 3 years in row actually, apologize. It was It was an aspect of theory and then criticism of theory. So, actually yeah, fair enough. It it It seems to be either that or an applied ethics question. But look, in 2023 it went back to applied ethics, so Kant and stealing, Kant and simulated killing, and then yeah, bit of Kant, Kant's first formulation. So, that's come up couple of times now. Don't Don't think they're going to ask about that in 2026. And the criticism that not all universalizable maxims are moral. therefore, 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4. So, actually okay, it's half and half. Half the time in the 12-marker they've asked about an aspect of theory and criticism of it. Half the time it's been an applied ethics question. So, my guess is if it's an applied ethics question, they haven't done meat yet. This is the glaring omission from the ethics exam so far. At some point they have to ask about eating meat. Utilitarianism is probably the nicest theory to ask about in relation to eating meat. So, my strongest guess prediction would be for utilitarianism plus eating meat. This is why you need to listen to the commentary of the videos and not just look at the tables. or it could be another applied area, but that's that's highest likelihood. If it's not if it's aspect of theory plus criticism, perhaps golden mean. That hasn't come up yet. That seems like key thing to ask about. Or phronesis, so something virtue ethics-y perhaps is my guess. Now, 25-marker, most likely to be based on what's come before and when it's come before. Kantian ethics cuz we had metaethics last year, then utilitarianism, then virtue ethics, then anti-realist. So, metaethics again. And then Kant. So, it's been ages since Kant. So, most likely to be Kant. They seem to like virtue ethics though. So, we had only two gap two two-year gap before virtue ethics came up for second time. They've asked about utilitarianism three times, so don't see how they can ask about utilitarianism in 2026. It would be very surprising to be asking about it again. Not impossible, but very surprising. And I've put {question mark} {exclamation mark} next to applied ethics. number of years. was predicting an applied ethics 25 marker because there are examples of it in the most commonly used textbook, the Cardinal Heywood Jones textbook, which seems to have there seems to be some some of those people seem to have influence on the examiners or be examiners. However, they have just never asked about an applied ethics. So, I've given up sorry, an applied ethics 25 marker. I've given up predicting an applied ethics 25 marker. They just it doesn't seem like they're going to do it. think it's cuz it's too difficult. It's more of university question. So, don't worry about those ones. That's like is stealing wrong? {questionmark} 25 marks. Is lying wrong? is is it okay to eat meat? Don't worry about those. think Kant or virtue. yeah. It It It's got to be one of those two, think. So, would have essay plans prepared for those. See my other ethics videos on YouTube for it tips on how to prepare for those. One more slide, think. Yeah. Two more slides, in fact, cuz here's all the stuff they haven't asked about yet for short answer question in moral philosophy. And as you can see, it's absolutely tons. This is why it's very difficult to to really predict these. Although, second formulation of the categorical imperative seems seems obvious to me. If was setting it, I'd I'd set that. last year, we crossed off they crossed off these ones. got those out of the way, but they're still an absolute ton cuz there's the next slide as well. Let's look at the next slide, too. Yeah, there's all these criticisms of theories cuz there's so much on the ethics specification. So, really, there's just quite lot to to learn and revise. can't really help you too much with the short answer questions in in what to zero in on. Just yeah, make sure you revise it all. Watch my ethics video on YouTube, which is free if it's helpful. And again, be aware if my predictions for the short answer questions are correct, then as said about epistemology, they may be might get I've got the content right, but they'll be in just in the wrong places. It It might be what said is three marker is actually 12 marker and vice versa and so on and so forth. Okay? Hope that's helpful. if you've got any particular questions, especially if you're patron, use your your direct line to me, comment on the video or send me message through Patreon if you've got any particular questions or things you want help with because you are you are paying for service there on Patreon. if you if you're watching later on YouTube, the free version, feel free to write comments, but I'm less likely to to get back to them at least in in good time. Good luck with the exam. God luck with the exam. Have fun and take care out there. See you next time.