Climate Change Vulnerability in the Arab World

good afternoon everyone good afternoon from Cairo good morning to our colleagues in DC and to everyone joining us virtually thank you so much for joining welcome to Carnegie welcome to the Middle East program I'm so sorry for the little delay we're having we had bit of technical issue it solved I'm happy to be joining you today with my colleagues to discuss one of our latest Publications looking at the impacts of climate change on the Middle East and North Africa and how climate change and its impacts correlate with vulnerability and governance this is one of our latest Publications which came out from the Middle East program in DC all my colleagues here joining us virtually my dear colleague Fred Weary who edited the volume my dear colleagues Sarah Keys contributed and myself contributed to the edited volume and we to discuss some of the key findings and to engage with you in discussion right after our short presentations I'm moderating the session today my name is Amber hamzawi I'm the director of the Middle East program in Carnegie DC without any further Ado would give the thought to my colleague Fred Wheatie who edited the volume to share some of his insights some of his analytical remarks and then from him to Sarah from Sarah to Marwan and saw him Fred over to you thanks so much Amber and thank you everyone for joining us and apologies again for the delay I'm going to truncate my remarks since we're running late so again as armor mentioned you know this this volume is is meant to be sort of panoramic look at nine Arab countries you know focusing on this theme of vulnerability to climate change and it starts with the assumption that climate change impacts will be felt unevenly across the Arab world both within countries and among countries obviously resource poor countries that lack adaptive capacities like infrastructure technology human and physical capital they're going to be affected severely especially those in the rural sector in the informal sector food insecurity is going to be huge problem richer oil exporting states on the other hand are better equipped to withstand the shocks of climate change obviously through Investments like desalinization agricultural project projects imported foodstuffs you know but these states also face long-term you know Reckoning with their dependency on oil they're going to be tested by the fiscal strains of the global transition to Green energy and think one of the themes that's emerging from our climate change work is that the you know the technical you know energy specific Solutions Aren't Enough these for these states to successfully transition they're going to have to adopt more holistic set of reforms that include you know regulatory shifts whole set of other set of of changes to the way they've done business the third category is is the fractured or close conflict or failed States and obviously they're incapable of mounting coherent climate policy and of course there the situation is very dire and of course country that work on Libya is an oil Rich State resource rich but is of course racked by conflict and we saw the tragic consequences of that earlier this month and can get into that so again one theme that emerges from our work is that you know governments in the region have prioritized mitigation over adaptation and that means you know they've taken steps in terms of lowering their carbon emissions they have these Grand plans to mitigate climate change but in terms of adaptation in terms of actually protecting their populations from climate change that is already underway they are lagging and that actually follows global Trend where there's not lot of focus and Global funding toward adaptation but think key theme in our work is that you know adaptation real adaptation is is difficult uncomfortable task for lot of these governments in the region because it requires addressing whole set of holistic inclusive reforms involving your citizenry you know more structural changes to your old way of doing business whereas mitigation it's easier for authoritarian governments to enact those top-down executive level changes to their you know Carbon emissions so again what we're trying to do here is is really link you know politics and governance to more sustainable form of of climate adaptation that moves beyond what some have called techno solutionism right just focus focusing on these sort of green pledges in green projects again certainly some climate tasks require top-down approach like you know energy shifts Water Management strategy but what we argue in all of our papers is that you know Society needs to be involved Civil Society municipalities lot of the people that are most affected by climate change they're not simply victims but they can be agents for driving climate adaptation they have the local knowledge here we're talking about Farmers people in rural regions again so this this is think departure from lot of the literature that we've seen on the Arab world for instance my colleague who who's not joining us today who wrote the paper on Saudi Arabia Justin dargan again we've seen lot on climate change with Saudi Arabia in terms of the oil sector but his paper is talking about the title of it is society-centered climate reforms again he's talking about how can Saudi Arabia protect its citizenry especially marginalized groups like Bedouin like Shia ethnosis sectarian groups from climate impacts and think that's departure from lot of the climate conversation on on Saudi Arabia so again what we're what we're arguing is that in this in these papers is that you know climate change will really amplify lot of and magnify lot of long-standing governance problems that we've seen you know in the region to include hyper centralization corruption bloated public sector you know disparities between urban areas and rural areas and of course we see that on display in number of countries already the papers are not meant to be exhaustive think they're really the start of of broader conversation broader project that we are that we are undertaking and they're meant to be you know actionable really and accessible for both governments in the region local actors Civil Society actors and outside donors and governance governments so with that armor know we're short on time but I'll turn it back over to you and can talk about Libya later on great thank you thank you so much Fred was was going to ask you to share few insights about Libya but I'll Circle back to you maybe after our colleagues have shared their insights thank you so much for this excellent overview and as you've mentioned this is at first account of our research on climate change vulnerability and governance We are continuing our work and accounting profiles are being prepared maybe you can share few insights from your country profile research on Libya later on Fred thank you so much now over to you Sarah you contributed to the compendium climate change vulnerability and governance with other colleagues at Carnegie chapter on Tunisia and the way Tunisia government and Society has been struggling to address climate change impacts and come to adaptation and mitigation strategies under very difficult circumstances so would love to hear more from you and some insights about the Tunisian case over to you sir great thank you so much and do want to thank Kaylee Classen who is my co-author on the paper and contributed significantly to the paper so the paper that we have put forward examines the way Tunisian officials have failed to prioritize climate change and the subsequent costs of that failure to Tunisia and in particular we look at the Deep disconnect between what we see as the sort of dejura ways in which the Tunisian government is addressing climate challenges on paper but the real de facto approach in which climate adaptation and mitigation is distant afterthought for the Tunisian president which has real and serious implications for people across the country the bottom line is that climate change is exacerbating tunisia's existing economic crisis and its existing socioeconomic inequalities and is hitting tunisia's traditionally marginalized interior in southern regions the hardest that aside it's failed to attract significant attention from the Tunisian government and according to the government's own estimates its mitigation and adaptation strategy is going to require close to 20 billion dollars in financing over the next decade which includes more than 11 billion dollars in international support and this comes at time when Tunisia is really struggling to convince International donors to support the country at all let alone in the climate sphere and so we argue that while these efforts might have high price tag if you ignore them that price tag goes up even more and it could in the long run cause decreased agricultural production lower tourism revenues and increased regular and irregular migration as well as higher unemployment which are all challenges Tunisia is facing already so just very briefly some of the climate challenges that changes facing today they're quite severe and according to the World Bank Tunisia is one of the country's most exposed to climate in the Mediterranean and many sources listed as global climate hot spot faces variety of challenges from water scarcity to hotter climates to food insecurity and we saw this on display just this past summer when parts of Tunisia were forced to undergo government-enforced water rationing due to the growing water scarcity that has been brought on by climate change this has really direct impact on the Agricultural and tourism sectors which are two of the biggest sectors of tunisia's economy and we also see excuse me also see Rising temperatures contributing to these agricultural challenges the water temperatures in the Mediterranean for example are rising 20 faster than the global average so really this is an area and this is not unique to Tunisia but this is an area that is you know facing very severe and very imminent challenges we've also seen seamlessly food insecurity and this year the wheat Harvest was only expected to reach 250 000 tons of grain compared to an average of 1.5 million tons annually and this has already seen itself result in bread rationing and forced many bakeries to shut their doors now as mentioned this is particularly harder for the interior regions who rely heavily on agriculture you know Tunisia has three distinct climate zones which each face its own unique climate challenges but these interior regions that are already suffering from social socioeconomic marginalization are feeling the effects of climate change even more than the coastal areas so what is the government doing to address these challenges you know as said there's just vast disconnect between the de facto and the jejura treatment of climate by the Tunisian government and while the government has on paper been working to address environmental concerns since 1975. in reality the government has failed to prioritize climate change in terms of resources and political wealth so interestingly Tunisia was actually the third country in the world to include climate change in its Constitution which it did in the 2014 Constitution and then carried that language over to the 2022 Constitution and it has several bodies that are established by the government to mitigate climate change and is actively seeking shift towards renewable energy but when you look at what's actually been implemented there's very little the lack of Human Resources the lack of financial resources to carry out these strategies mean that the government while on paper looks pretty good and reality has done very little and we see this affecting the lives of the Tunisian people in recent Arab barometer survey for example 64 of tunisians said that the government should be doing more to address climate change in 72 percent say the lack of government initiatives contributes to climate change to great or medium extent and in an Afro barometer survey 83 percent of tunisians believe there needs to be additional environmental regulation so this is not just something that you know we as analysts are seeing this is something that Tunisian people have recognized themselves as well the other major challenge right now is the hyper local nature of climate challenges yet this government under kaisai has centralized the government significantly eliminated the minister of local Affairs fired all of the municipal counselors and while we are expecting second parliamentary house that will begin the elections at the end of this year that body would potentially be responsible form of the local Affairs the system of government that has been created under case side is based on Total Control by the Central State which really does not bode well for developing local solutions to tunisia's climate challenges and furthermore we've seen no aptitude in the past four years by this president to work with the local government in way that's necessary to address the local climate challenges the other actor that's really important in Tunisia in addressing climate change is civil society and so we've seen Civil Society step in often to fill in the Gap that is left by the government and their failure to address climate change but we've seen Civil Society organizations frustrated by the lack of government help the lack of government ability to carry out some of their issues and some interviews that we did for this paper we heard from Civil Society activists who had devised local solutions to their local climate problems but then when they put those problems and those Solutions forward they were blocked by the Tunisian government and never implemented so you can see there's this real frustration and real lack of communication between the Tunisian government and Civil Society so looking ahead and one of the recommendations that we make is that International donors who are still quite involved in Tunisia in the development sphere Focus their development efforts on climate change you know tunisia's traditional Partners the United States and Europe are both rightly reticent right now to support the government of Tunisia as Christine continues to violate human rights and roll back freedoms but climate adaptation and mitigation is One path forward this is concrete area to support tunisia's most vulnerable population and to assist in long-term economic growth at the country so desperately needs and so the International Community if it doesn't want to support some of its previous projects can really like double down here on climate change and and focus its development efforts on climate change however if the Tunisian government and present site in particular fail to address climate change every other fissure in Tunisian Society is going to be aggravated we've seen over the past year that climate-related protests worldwide have proliferated and we see in other countries the experience that since climate is so deeply connected to every other part of society climate protests can quickly expand and include other issues including ones that threaten saeed's political regime so it's very much in his interest to address climate change if he continues to block climate mitigation efforts however he will likely see continued relative deprivation the same sort of instability the factors that led to the 2010-2011 changing uprisings are just going to repeat themselves so the Tunisian government should make an effort make addressing climate change central pillar of its efforts to manage the country's current political and economic crises and I'll just end by saying that you know Tunisia has some really distinct advantages that we don't see throughout the region when it comes to fighting climate change which is committed Civil Society activists local actors that are eager and willing to take on climate change and have the skills to do so and as well as these government bodies and reports studies action planes that already exist that lay out the path forward and donor community that is actually seeking ways to support the country in political manner that benefits the Tunisian people but without the full-fledged support of kaiseed these are all irrelevant so I'll end it there thank you thank you so much Sarah for an excellent presentation reviewing the chapter you and Haley contributed to the companion thank you so much for bringing our attention to how government and Civil Society Dynamics impact the way countries in the Middle East and North Africa have been responding to climate change challenges and and the importance of having governance prison when looking at climate change we're we're not we're not scientists we do not work on the scientific component of climate change we work on how climate change is impacting and how it correlates with key features of Arab Middle Eastern North African societies such as social vulnerability and governance the different deficits where we're we're facing in the region thank you so much I'm sure we'll come back to you with questions from our audience but let me now go to my contributed chapter on Jordan which would love to of course read it but would love for the audience to hear about marijuana's insights so over at humor one thank you so much Amber it's amazing how similar the problems are I'm hearing Sarah talk and of course read that paper and wrist paper and it's amazing how similar many of the problems are across the Arab world let me say at first that at least think that climate change is finding its way however slowly into the radar screen of the Arab world it's finally getting some attention not enough attention but some attention that it deserves in region that is going to be affected very very badly by climate change mean Jordan is case in point Jordan is both energy poor and water poor in terms of per capita income per capita share of water we are the second poorest country in the world and so we are already starting from very that situation with no ability to of course desalinate water because we are energy poor as well and so climate change which you know promises to have drier climates across the world but certainly in Jordan is going to affect mostly the vulnerable communities in the country these are the farmers in the Jordan Valley whose livelihood rely on water that is you know increasingly not that and on refugees 30 percent of Jordan's population is refugees today whether they are Syrian refugees Iraqi refugees and other refugees and their ability to for example get water is already very limited because of the scarcity of water but with climate change this situation is going to be much much worse in the future what is the government doing about it don't know if the situation is as bad as it is in Tunisia Sarah the government does mean does understand the implications of climate change on the country but of course most often than not the police policy decisions are taken for economic reasons and not for environmental reasons in country that is poor such as Jordan it is easy to fall into this trap of you know looking at short-term gains instead of long-term ones an example that illustrates this is taxes on electric cars so taxes were lifted on electric cars to encourage people to buy electric cars and then they were reinstated again once the Ministry of Finance saw the revenues you know being reduced by the lack of taxes and this oscillating between policy decisions is mainly due to the lack of holistic approach to governance that Fred talked about and and Sarah talked about as well there is no or little ministerial interministerial coordination between the affected Ministries so the ministry of the environment the minister of Agriculture the ministry of energy the Ministry of Finance don't talk to each other and often take contradictory policy decisions that affect the other Ministry without without much coordination and perhaps that is one of the main recommendations that we talked about one to have holistic approach What what have recommended in the paper is to treat the minister of the environment as what we call sovereign Ministry and put it on par with all the The Sovereign Ministries the Ministry of Foreign Affairs the minister of interior the Minister of Finance these are sort of the key Ministries in the country the ministry of the environment needs to have more teeth as sovereign Ministry and Lead needs to needs to lead the coordination among all Ministries so that policy decisions are made in coordination with all the affected parties that's that's one that's one issue the other issue is the need to leverage global climate change Finance there is big fund for climate change Finance in order to help countries poor as Jordan to implement climate change policies that benefit the country but so far Jordan lacked lacks the capacity to present its case to these to this Fund in in credible and and effective Manner and think the Ministries don't know if that's the case in other Arab countries probably it is but there is no capacity to be able to make use of these funds that that that that can help the government we are witnessing the start of coordination between the executive and the legislative branch in government in the country which is good more parliamentarians are worried about this issue and are starting to be involved in it which bodes well but the relationship with civil society is still not as strong as it could be in Jordan we have political issues that are tied to the climate change issue for example the proposed Energy Water Project with UAE and Israel where Jordan would produce electricity sell it to Israel and in return get water that is desalinated by this energy in Israel and brought back to Jordan with UAE financing civil society is is dead against this project because of the issue with Israel and so the the relationship between the government and Civil Society has been affected by political issues such as this one to great degree think these are the major the major sort of issues that want to highlight the paper goes into detail of course about the effect on water on transport on agriculture on energy in the country but the main the main the main conclusion want to draw attention to is again the need for holistic governance approach and the need to address the vulnerable communities particularly in the Jordan Valley and among refugees great thank you so much for one for your insightful presentation will come back to all of you once we we give us some our colleague out somehow see the opportunity to present this finding as well will come back to ask all of you about vulnerable communities and our climate change is impacting different segments of Arab populations and in the Middle East and North Africa in different ways and how how we could understand vulnerability in phase in which we're increasingly seeing the impacts of climate change on our societies and increased risks from public health perspective from an access to resource perspective as well as from equal or close to equal distribution of resources perspective as well thank you so much Marwan for your presentation on the Jordan case let me now move to our dear colleague who is joining us from Beirut Assam is researcher at the Malcolm Care Center Carnegie by root Center for Middle East studies Assam and who is the director of the Beirut Center contributes to the compendium on the case of Lebanon which now would love to give us on the floor to share key insights from the case of Lebanon as it pertains to climate change and its impacts on different segments of the society in Lebanon Assam over to you thank you Ahmed Fred 011 good morning and good afternoon to everyone as mentioned this is that I'm gonna say now and what I'm going to talk about now is basically the intersection of climate change and the ongoing economic and political turmoil in Lebanon it's based on the paper that Dr Maya yeah the director of Carnegie Center in Beirut and co-authored for this first to provide some context it's imperative technology that Lebanon with its Rich history and cultural heritage was trying to navigate into convergence of crises that have been ruined for an extended period even beyond the economic crisis that became apparent in 2019 these Encompass draining economic collapse persistent political instability chronic institutions management and the big humanitarian challenge of accommodating and ever expandings here in Refugee population these challenges have created The Perfect Storm of crises that threaten lebanon's stability and prosperity within this large number of issues climate change emerges as silent and potent adversary intensifying lebanon's difficult challenges according to lebanon's Ministry of environment the Specter of climate change could on its own potentially inflict the further 14 decline the country's GTP by 2040 in addition to the economic hardships that the country is currently facing so it's essential to recognize that climate change is not just distant Global issue but one that local experts believe is concern with immediate and far-reaching applications for Lebanon lebanon's rapid urbanization with an overwhelming majority of its populists residing in urban centers has notably heightened the demand for essential infrastructure and services unfortunately government mismanagement across several layers of Administration has rendered increasingly difficult to effectively cater to these developing needs this mismanagement has led to breakdown of Public Services exacerbating the challenges faced by ordering Japanese citizens and inhabitants now critical facet of climate change impact in Lebanon is the concerning reduction in snow cover on lebanon's famous mountains this unsettling trend has caused the dwindling of the groundwater Supply which is the primary source of water for consumption at agriculture consequently water scarcity has become widespread issue resulting in soaring costs of water and bad decline in water quality this has cast long Shadow over agriculture once pivotal economic sector in the country which has witnessed the decline in its contribution to GTP from somewhere around seven percent in 1995 to mere 1.5 in 2021. farmers who are dealing with fluctuating temperature conditions and shifting precipitation patterns are struggling to sustain their livelihoods and this impact impacts not only the economy but also food security lebanon's resource mismanagement has also been significant contributor to the increasing cost of air pollution predominantly stemming from energy generation through diesel generators and rampant emissions from the Transportation sector the country's woeful waste mismanagement further compounds this issue as the frequent incineration of trash releases harmful cochlear of pollutants into the atmosphere these politics carry severe Health implications and exact substantial economic tool the deteriorating air quality is not just health hazard but also drain on lebanon's already suffering economy in addition to all that I've mentioned so far we have to talk about lebanon's extensive forests which include lebanon's which include basically the middle east's largest Pine forests which are undergoing major threat right now besieged by expanding wildfires and rampant deforestation escalating temperatures have led to an uptick in wildfires while economic hardships have driven individuals to resort to tree chopping for income or even for firewood this unfortunate scenario not only contributes to climate change but also exacerbates the vulnerability of Lebanon aesthetical ecosystem to soil erosion and landslides the loss of forest affects lebanon's environment and also its natural beauty and cultural heritage lastly lebanon's Foster cities which are home to substantial majority of the population today they face the ominous Specter of rising sea levels Coastal erosion flooding salt water intrusion The Disappearance of chair beaches and the looming potential for population displacement are all pressing concerns that demand our attention experts believe that the impact of rising sea levels is not distant future scenario but an imminent threat that requires consideration now to talk bit about lebanon's climate policy framework while the state has committed to International climate agreements the absence of binding legislation presents formidable challenge to address this our research outlines pivotal actions first in terms of short-term actions we mentioned raising public awareness regarding climate change this is the first step in mobilizing country that we feel is really behind creating companion incentives for the adoption of sustainable behaviors is crucial to changing individuals and grouping and group habits enforcing already existing Environmental Protection laws is essential to curb further environmental degradation and actively promoting alternative energy sources notably solar panels can reduce lebanon's dependence on fossil fuels in terms of meeting to long-term actions ideally crafting robust economic recovery plan which realize implementing such plan seems to be an impossible task at the moment but such recovery plan interwoven with green policies is essential to lebanon's sustainable future prioritizing job creation Energy Efficiency and sustain and substantial reduction in carbon emissions which would play small part in navigating air pollution and actively seeking financial assistance for crucial climate action which some of my colleagues just mentioned and environmentally sustainable projects can help Lebanon recover and mitigate climate change simultaneously we added some broad-based efforts such as encouraging symbiotic partnership between private sector civil society and higher education institutions which can drive Innovation and sustainability and cultivating green entrepreneurship initiatives that Foster sustainable and green technological innovations which will be important for lebanon's future and for the future Generations ultimately it's Paramount for Lebanon to give climate change and Environmental Protection an important role within its public policy frame even amidst the turbances of ongoing political economic turmoil prioritizing climate change framed Within action of strategies that integrate Economic Development can substantially bolster debunk difficult journey toward recovery and long-term Prosperity so the idea is Lebanon not only Deals Deals with its share of the global impact of climate change but also safeguards the future of the people that currently reside in the country against an increasingly uncertain background thank you very much and great thank you so much Hassan for your presentation I'm grateful for the way you highlighted the impacts of climate change on key vulnerable communities in Lebanon communities living in coastal areas which is basically the most populous places in Lebanon as well as the impacts of climate change on the agricultural side let me now to get some discussion between you going between Fred Sarah Marwan and and yourself let me Circle back to Fred not only because he's the editor of the compendium and not not because he was under the pressure of starting late and did not speak about Libya would like to Circle back to you for two reasons thread one because Libya just went through massive disaster which is climate related but not only climate impact mean this is disaster where we really see the interplay of climate risks and governance deficits which would like you to highlight and address because it will bring sort of the main argument we're pushing forward in the compendium to to in in in clear way to our to our audience so if you could reflect on Libya bit on the disaster in the city of derna and why it happened how it could have been avoided and so on and so forth and then secondly would like you to reflect within the Libyan context as well on the most vulnerable communities impacted by climate change is it in the coastal regions of Libya or are we looking at other places so so how should we understand vulnerability as it relates to climate in the Libyan context over at you Fred yeah thank you Amer you're you're absolutely right that the the tragic flooding in eastern Libya is is really the result of an interplay or Confluence of of factors and do hope it's it's wake-up call for for lead to Libya but also the broader region really you know to to recognize the systemic and interrelated nature of all these problems so it just wasn't weather issue it was the build up of you know years of misgovernance corruption and politics quite frankly as well so again conducted to two visits to Libya to do field work on climate change in July of this year and then you know May of last year and and again talking to scientists meteorologists everybody mean this was this was long in the coming mean my paper identifies flooding as risk there have been towns in Libya that have been subjected to floods you know before we know that these extreme weather events are are worsening so you know why was it so extreme why did it why did derna get so Afflicted so much again it really stems think from from Libya's systemic governance problems of course we're talking talking about state that is divided between you know two two administrations two governance that is split within those different administrations in the case of Darna it was exacerbated by the politics of that town and sort of heftar's long-standing isolation of that town basically it was under siege derna was one of the strongest opponents to heftar's rise so you had that political layer on top of long-standing Municipal neglect that affects many Libyan towns so again municipalities local actors across the country are not empowered to tackle range of climate related events to include fires droughts sandstorms and flooding so but in the case of derna you have the additional problem of of Politics on top of that you know again this think much of this has already been you know reported you know in the media the the bigger thing that want to Circle back to about you know vulnerable communities is like the other countries that were mentioned in this discussion we're talking about countries on on geographic periphery so in Libya that is the Jebel nafusa to the west of Tripoli this is mountainous region there's an ethno-linguistic Dimension there so these this is where the amazing linguistic majority minority live and so that adds compounding factor in the South we're talking about the vast desert region of the fazam where again you have an ethnic linguistic you know Dimension there with the toric that's also thoroughfare for migrants so migrants are especially affected by climate change because so many of their them are involved in the agricultural sector in that in the South and that is being afflicted by you know water shortages and sustained sustained drought and the last vulnerable area is the area where Derma was hit that's the the Jebel Akbar the the Green Mountains in here want to emphasize this the systemic nature of this because like my colleague Sam mentioned in terms of lebanon's for us Libya has forests on much smaller scale but again they have proven to be beneficial in terms of regulating climate events in terms of keeping temperatures lower creating microclimates when you there has been massive deforestation in Libya because of lawlessness because of you know criminal groups militias are basically cutting down the forest converting them into more profitable businesses Apartments they're selling the wood for charcoal and that has ripple effect right so when you transform the natural environment in certain ways that is felt in terms of the intensity of sandstorms intensity of temperatures and also flooding so there is now lot of discussion that the flooding in eastern Libya was due in part because that that natural mountainous forested environment was transformed so all of this going back to your point armor all this is is interlinked and again in the case of Libya I'll just conclude here but you know to Echo what what Marwan was saying you know this this is government that is severely paralyzed on on climate policy of the of the countries in the world that have that have signed the Paris Accord think there are 196. Libya is the only country that is not submitted nationally determined conservation this is the un's term for your climate Road map so they are lagging there's rivalries the ministry of the environment is not talking to the prime minister's office over who owns the climate policy the government in the East heftar's government is not really cooperating with the government in the west there's some low-level technical cooperation was talking to the National meteorological office they don't have you know sufficient monitoring stations across the country and there again it's problem in the East so all of this is is linked to Libya's government's maladies and again I'm I'm hoping that this will be the wake-up call that that Libya's Elites need But as Sarah mentioned we're already starting to see people take to the streets in in Libya because of this horrendous disaster in the east thank you so much Fred this this was really great in terms of mean it's tragic situation in Libya especially with the heavy casualties but it's important for us especially in the Arab way to realize that this was not simply only nature induced or climate induced that there was great deal of human doing into it be it we're focusing on governance deficits or we're focusing in the case of the two dams and and they're now on on on on corruption and where the allocated resources resources allocated for the maintenance and repair the dams where we're wasted and not devoted to them leading to casualties in the thousands of civilians in in Libya it's quite important and again I'm going back to point which Marwan made on gradual evolution of awareness about climate change in the rain this is as tragic as situation in Libya is this has or is resulting in in more awareness across the region of climate change that it's now it's an immediate issue not an issue for tomorrow and that it correlates with the way we're conducting ourselves and our businesses from governance perspective let me now on the governance Point come to you Sarah because if Libya has at this integrated government or governance structures this cannot be said about Tunisia Tunisia is facing different set of challenges political social and economic which is as you mentioned in the beginning would like you to outline them more are impacting the capacity of Tunisia government and Civil Society to address our interests how is the situation in Tunisia the political turmoil or instability or unclarity about what will happen next how is the polarization going on in society how are most of them impacting and the capacity of Tunisia to live up to the challenges of climate change sure no it's really good question and it's something that gets to the heart of this really just Stark difference between the possibilities in Tunisia and the reality and what we see is you have this President kaisaid who's centralized all of the government into his own hands but has not shown any aptitude or appetite for addressing climate change and one of the things that he did that was most harmful is the getting rid of the local affairs minister firing all the municipal counselors so he has devised the system or you have parliament that really is very has very little power that's under his own power and then you're supposed to have this second body that's supposed to address local Affairs Tunisia prior to kaisai itself who two years ago had this very impressive 27-year decentralization process that would have really aided climate change because it puts so much power into the hands of local officials it had several levels of of local action that could take place but because of the fact that Christine has erased that whole process we're now facing not only this major question of sort of who's in charge you know one of the things that we're trying to find out in this paper is who is actually responsible for climate change you know who has the power to actually Implement some of the strategies that exist on paper and everything just comes back up to kite Saeed and so there's little bit of hope would say that they're having elections supposedly at the end of the year December 24th that will start the process for the second house that will nominally have control over local Affairs but it's not going to be the same as it was previously and the other piece that think your question was getting at it is just this idea of the mistrust or the level of trust that people do not have in government and so you know when you're having these real Dynamic situations like we saw this summer with water scarcity where the the government is asking people forcing people to not have any water for many hours during the day we also just last week the the local power company that controls 99 of power in Tunisia had blackout for between three and five hours depending on where you were in the country the entire country had blackout and so what happens the president fires the head of that company and replaces them with someone else but that hasn't fixed the problem you have all these different issues people don't trust their government when you don't have water when you don't have bread when you don't have electricity it gets very hard to put your trust in that government and this lack of connection between the people in their government is just making all of these challenges so much harder projects thank you thank you so much Sarah mean would would love to come back to you and and to Fred was questioned on the agricultural sector and and the population engaged in agriculture in both Libya and and Tunisia and the way they are impacted by climate change because what I've been reading about is that agriculture in Tunisia and Libya is losing to great extent it's it's it's viability as an activity in which segments white segments of the population are engaged and this has huge impacts on vulnerable communities such as women in rural areas poor and impoverished segments of the population in in different rural areas so maybe if we have time will come back to to this but now you Marwan and you mentioned at the beginning that Jordan is energy poor and water poor which which makes Jordan one of the most critical cases from climate change perspective we have Rising temperatures we have in the Middle East and North Africa expectations are that rainfall will become less in the in the coming years which will deprive Jordan of some of the limited Water Resources it has and then you refer to Jordan Valley and its populations can you please outline which segments of the population in Jordan are most impacted by climate change and and how are they impacted by climate change is it the segments engagement agriculture business or in cities which in many places in the Middle East and North Africa are more of suffering places from climate perspective because cities are suffering from energy shortage from water shortage over few more hey Karma first of all it's good to realize that 75 of Jordan is Desert so all of the population of Jordan lives within very narrow step along the Jordan River which itself you know can be called really Creek rather than river it does not have much water most of the water from the Jordan River which is Jordan's basically only river is diverted by Israel in the North to the naga where they use it for agricultural purposes and all the Jordan gets from the Jordan River these days is flood water so if rainfall is not there you know we don't get much water the rest of the water in the country comes from ground aquifers which are not renewable most of them because we have water deficit every year that forces us to rely on non-renewable ground aquifers and so that's not sustainable situation that has been compounded by the presence of refugees now so in order to provide water for refugees particularly Syrian refugees Jordan is pumping even more water from its ground aquifers that are that that is not renewable in terms of the Agricultural sector even though it only provides five percent of Jordan's GTP these days so it has gone way down than what it was but of course the the farmers in the Jordan Valley which is where most of our agricultural products are raised are the most effective and we're already seeing migration of these Farmers into the major cities you know as as climate change effects stakehold so the farmers in the Jordan Valley are one extremely abundant Community the refugee Community is another extremely vulnerable community but even those in the cities you know in summer for example you know now as we speak jordanians in major cities are lucky if they get water once week and and and and most of the water is then bought from you know big tankers and God knows what they bring to the water from probably illegally so we already have very acute situation in terms of water and with no apparent solution the gulf countries have been able to sort of you know solve it by desalinating water from their but we don't have the money to do it and all desalination attempts there are many many projects in the country if you just desalinate water from the Red Sea in part which is again Jordan's only Outlet to the Sea have have failed so we are in very very vulnerable situation both in the Jordan Valley but but really with the population at large armor thank you so much Marwan you mentioned in your presentation that one of the recommendations you put forward in in the paper is to to take more of holistic approach with regard to managing the impacts of climate change and understood that you mean holistic not only at the government side but also at the Civil Society yes can you can can you maybe very briefly outline what you mean by holistic approach to climate change decisions cannot be taken you know by one Ministry without coordination with the other let me give you concrete example so solar energy in Jordan is abundant because we have lot of sun and lot of land and so we have successfully raised the percentage of electricity that we get from solar panels the 30 percent of our needs of our electricity needs and that's that's that's impressive that's not bad but then the government started realizing that as people are real you know relying more on solar energy they're not using energy produced by by the traditional electricity company and so the government is losing revenues and so the the long-term benefit of for the environment resulting from you know energy from solar panels is being ignored by the short-term gains that the country collects from its citizens that's again one of the main problems for country as poor as Jordan is that economic decision making almost always trumps environmental considerations and that is why the country has to and that's another recommendation we have the country has to build its capacity in leveraging climate change Finance Finance mechanisms that are being put forward by the World by the International Community because relying on government revenues alone is not going to do it let me let me come to you if if the agricultural sector in Jordan does not contribute much to overall GDP this is not the case in Lebanon this is one of the key sectors in the Lebanese economy and even as in terms of employment it employs big number big percentage of these population especially women in rural areas can you outline how the agricultural sector is impacted by climate change and I'm interested not in the technical aspects but in the impact on foreigners as vulnerable community in Lebanon of course so basically the the issue with the agriculture sector is not new one in Lebanon and what's effectively happening is many of the population that was basically laboring in the agricultural sector is moving from this sector and moving towards the cities and the coast basically because opportunities in agricultural sector for various reasons but including climate change are no longer viable so they're no longer viable because of economic conditions in Lebanon but also they're no longer viable because precipitation patterns are changing and no longer reliable the temperature is increasing and so some crops are no longer viable so what's happening effectively is we're increasing the size of urban centers we're increasing the size the size of the portion of the population that's on the on the coast and you can see where this could be problem in the future if not right now of course because the demand on Services the demand on infrastructure in these Urban centers is increasing at rapid rapid rate and you add to that you know in influx of well basically Syrian refugees that Lebanon is taking care of right now and so this you know stress on the infrastructure is really reaching very very high level highlighted the impact of refugees which is once again on on Lebanon and Jordan from climate change perspective and very similar to Sarah's and Fred's points on governance or General points on vulnerability and the refugee crisis in the region is one key reminder of the fact that climate change does not impact the middle eastern North Africa in vacuum it impacts it in societal context and political context in which we're facing lot of deficits and unsold crises we're we're know that we were supposed to to to begin DC time at 10 30 am we started bit later however we're approaching the hour so we still have few minutes left maybe three would like to give the three months of my colleagues because he did wonderful job editing the volume and without them we have been able to put it out so Fred would like you to reflect in the last two minutes and away from Libya on the general Regional scene and if you're speaking with citizens in Lebanon and Jordan Egypt Libya Morocco and trying to alert them to how significant climate change is and how it relates to governance and existing vulnerabilities which four or five takeaways would you put forward yeah thanks so much again think many of those themes have been eloquently addressed by my colleagues and and again just just would implore you know decision makers in the region to not again to not treat this as purely you know technical or or you know scientific problem or an energy related problem it's whole of government problem it has to involve as we've said today the citizens it has to involve vulnerable communities themselves and again think as we've already said it it in many cases climate change is simply accelerating or magnifying or amplifying you know problems that people have seen in the region for long time in addition to these these tragic shocks that come unexpectedly as we saw in in Libya so again do hope that this tragic event in country that I've studied for over decade is is signal to decision makers you know across the world and and in in the Arab world and again we're not calling for overnight transformation but it's think it's very clear especially when we look at Eastern Libya that civil society and local actors you know they have to be involved you you can't get around this problem by by shutting out vast parts of your your population from the climate you know conversation so guess that would be my my main takeaway armor but again over to you as as someone who lives in Egypt and we haven't even talked about Egypt yeah right okay thank you so much Fred thank you so much mean was happy to contribute with colleague of mine and Mohammed on Egypt on Water Resource Management in Egypt but my my my takeaways from an awareness perspective especially following the disaster in Libya the tragedy Libya that it's important to include local communities as all of you have just mentioned and because without them we really do not understand and the details and the realities of how climate change is impacting our life now and not will impact our life in few years from now secondly believe it's important regionally to create sense of solidarity across the region around events impact related to climate change like the disaster in there now but even around the earthquakes in Morocco because people are becoming more attentive to how our life is changing due to events which are beyond our control and then they they raise the right questions regarding representation inclusion governance anti-corruption measures and so on and so forth but let me at the end thank you Fred for your insights researcher working on Lebanon thank you all so much let me as well thank our audience who joined us virtually who was patient from the beginning for the technical glitch we have apologize from your time and now we will end this session and thank you so much